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Blitz 08 trading discussion


hokkeefan

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So are you saying the draft wont start until November? Cos trading can take place during the draft - players & trade picks. If the draft starts soon it makes sense to have this sorted out beforehand

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Why not instead of approving trades we have a trade veto process instead.

For example, coaches A & B make a trade on 8/17 at 9:15pm on the forums.

From the time the trade is posted to the forums, give 48 hours for any given member of the league to veto the trade.

If a trade is brought up for veto, make a thread in which members can discuss and vote a poll on the individual trade.

Than based on the judgment of the league mod a decision should be made.

If every trade were to go to vote it would take forever and be a waste of time.

A veto process would only bring the controversial trades that need review to the spotlight.

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no rush buddy ,I was just expecting it soon cause im a fing 94 freak and want to succeed for once and not make a s**t team every fn season,was lookin forward to it soon,im a changed 94 freak,I WANNA FN WIN !!!!

Edited by hokkeefan
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We should all just agree to use Smo's trade evaluator formula. If we do that there would be nothing to argue about.

A couple weeks ago I actually saw an article online where someone came up with pretty much the same formula for ranking actual NHL drafted players. My formula is 1000/(pick+10), whereas for real NHL it was something like 391/(pick+8) 310/(Pick+3.3)

EDIT: here's the article, including a graph that shows the determined actual value of draft picks, and the formula:

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=187

The formula they came up with was 310 / (Pick + 3.3)

The top numbers (1000 or 310) don't really matter, since they just scale it up. The tricky number to find is the bottom number, the 10 or 3.3. The real NHL draft number of 3.3 is really low which means draft player value drops off really fast in a real draft (there's only 1-3 great players per draft), whereas in NHL94, there's more like 10-20 stand-out players.

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From smozoma; we should consider this for blitz tho protection rounds make things tricky

Here is something I tried out with Blitz that gave decent results.

A player or pick has a trade value of 1000 divided by (draft position + 10).

So 1st pick has a value of 1000/(1+10) = 91. 10th pick has a value of 1000/(10+10)=50. And so on.

Calculate this for each player in a trade. If the final trade ratio is far away from 1.0, it could be a bad trade.

I found that a surprisingly large amount of blitz trades were very close to equal using this formula.

Some sample trades...

Player       Pick   Value
Trevor Linden 36 -> 21.74
Scott Stevens 35 -> 22.22
Mike Richter  85 -> 10.53
TOTAL               54.49
For ---------------------
Kirk Muller   25 -> 28.57
Chris Chelios 48 -> 17.24
Sean Burke    99 ->  9.17
TOTAL               54.99 


Steve Yzerman 10 -> 50.00
Rob Blake 43 -> 18.87
TOTAL 68.87
For -----------------------
Dino Ciccarelli 17 -> 37.04
Paul Coffey 23 -> 30.30
TOTAL 67.34


SCOTT STEVENS 35 -> 22.22
PETER BONDRA 53 -> 15.87
10.15 231 -> (ignore, 10th round player doesn''t actually play)
TOTAL 38.10
For -----------------------
WAYNE GRETZKY 31 -> 24.39
6.07 127 -> 7.30
6.12 132 -> 7.04
TOTAL 38.73

Bad trades:

Tomas Sandstrom 11 -> 47.62
2.12 36 -> 21.74
TOTAL 69.36
For -----------------------
Pavel Bure 6 -> 62.50
2.16 40 -> 20.00
TOTAL 82.50
The above trade isn't too bad.. but there is definitely a possibility of problem if moving up near the start of the 1st and down only a little in the 2nd

Mark Messier 13 -> 43.48
4.2 92 -> 9.80
TOTAL 53.38
For -----------------------
2.21 45 -> 18.18
4.07 79 -> 11.24
TOTAL 29.42

Players from the 8th round and on shouldn't even count.

One problem with this system is that if someone picks a player way too early, his value is inflated. This could be mitigated by using average draft positions in draft history.

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I think this formula, along with ADP is a fair way to evaluate questionable trades. I think that if a trade seems unreasonable (given the formula + human judgement), we give a voting period of 24 hrs. Those parties outside of the people involved in the trade who vote in that 24 hr period will decide to let it through or not. Majority wins.

MOST trades are normal...so this shouldn't interfere with the flow of the draft. Better to play it slow and safe, to avoid arguments. No need to rush a draft for a season and playoffs that take months to complete.

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IceStorm brings up a valid point with protection picks. For instance, if someone were to trade a mid-late 2nd round pick for a first round protection pick, would that be considered a "good" trade? The person receiving the protection pick would essentially be protecting someone who could be picked in the 2nd or 4th round, or could have been picked with their third round protection pick.

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