Draft Analysis

[smozoma]

Not really commenting on the teams, just the players.

One thing I'm noticing is taht the first two GDL drafts are really.. anomalous, shall we say. If you ignore the first two drafts, the statistics really settle down.

1.1

Jeremy Roenick

History: 3,4,1,2,1,1,1

This is the 3rd season in a row that JR has gone #1. Hard to argue with this pick.

1.2

Patrick Roy

History: 5,9,5,5,3,6,2

This marks the 3rd time in a row that Roy has been drafted before Belfour, despite Belfour having a 4 point Overall Rating advantage. The scouting report is that Belfour goes down a bit too easily on dekes, and that Roy's faster gloves trump Belfour's faster pads.

1.3

Teemu Selanne

History: 8,10,9,4,6,5,3

This is Selanne's highest draft ever, and is 4 places earlier than his average (7th). He's an elite scorer, but I think most people would take Bure over Selanne. Selanne may have a more accurate shot (4/5 vs 4/4), but that 5 weight for Bure puts him among the checking elite. However, for one-timers, Selanne may make himself a better passing target, so which player you prefer can come down to your playing style.

1.4

Steve Yzerman

History: 6,13,3,3,4,2,4

13th? How did Yzerman ever last until 13th? He's not the flashiest player, but Yzerman is skilled at.. everything. 6/5 skating, 4/5 shot, one of the few players with 6 OffAw. He's a solid pick anywhere after Roenick.

1.5

Pavel Bure

History: 7,2,6,7,2,3,5

After two consecutive top-3 picks, Bure falls to 5th. How he has ever been drafted outside the top 5, I don't know. This was definitely the right choice. Goals win games in GDL, and no other player is as pure a goal-scorer as Bure in this game.

This is only the 2nd time Bure has been drafted after his speedster counterpart, Selanne.

Edited January 30, 2010 by smozoma

[smozoma]

1.6

Alexnder Mogilny (FlamingPavelBure)

History: 2,5,8,9,5,4,6

Mogs falls out of the top 5 after going 5th and 4th the past two seasons. He doesn't have quite the same finishing ability as Bure or Selanne, despite his 6/6 speed (the other 6 speed guys have 5 or less agility), but it'd be hard to pass him up at 6th.

1.7

Theoren Fleury (matthurray)

History: 1,6,11,12,8,11,7

Raise your hand if you thought matt was going to pick Belfour!

This is the highest he's been picked since season 2. Best checker in the game, but his 4/3 shot is a bit of a weakness. I would have expected a guy like Ciccarelli or even Gilmour to go in his stead, but still a sensible pick.

1.8

Ed Belfour (BoKnowsNHL94)

History: 4,3,4,1,7,8,8

The eagle isn't soaring so high in the draft these days! People seem to be concentrating more on scoring. But really, who could pass him up at this point...

1.9

Dino Ciccarelli (flasox24)

History:

13,14,7,11,13,7,9

Dino breaks the top 10 for the 2nd season in a row. I know I made a mistake in GDL 4 taking Gilmour instead of Ciccarelli with the 10th pick!

1.10

Mike Modano (sebe)

History: 15,22,18,16,12,13,10

I've got Modano ranked 14th historically (counting seasons 3-6), so am surprised to see him jump a whole 4 spots to 10th. He's fast and has a hard, though unpredictable shot, but his 7 weight can be a weakness against tougher teams.. I don't really see why anyone would pick him over Gartner, who's very similar, but has a slightly more accurate shot. Modano's the one with a GDL cup, though, so what do I know! : )

Edited January 31, 2010 by smozoma

[RedWingDevil]

Pretty good analysis so far, smoz.

The reason I decided to go for Selanne is because I want to get used to the burner guys a lot better and I believe Selanne will give me what I need under center. On top of that, his 6 weight coupled by his 3 in CHK gives me a reasonable two-way forward I can not only use on offense with breaaways and one-timers, but also someone I can have on defense who can control the zone and take guys out of a play. Compared to a few other guys, he can be a nice two-way forward to have for a first pick, though I can name 2-3 guys besides Roenick who may fit the role.

[smozoma]

Pretty good analysis so far, smoz.

On top of that, his 6 weight coupled by his 3 in CHK gives me a reasonable two-way forward

Don't forget that the Chk rating doesn't do anything in GDL

It only affects AI check frequency, not actual checking effectiveness, without the weight bug fix.

[Freydey]

Yzerman 4th overall is an outrage!!!

[The Russian Rocket]

Yzerman 4th overall is an outrage!!!

Yes, he owns Roenick.

[smozoma]

Format:

History: GDL1,2,3,4,5,6,7

1.11

Mike Gartner (dcicon5148)

History: 25,12,12,14,9,12,11

Gartner goes right on schedule at 11th. Speed and a killer shot.

At this point, only Gilmour is behind schedule (Modano was the one who jumped ahead in his place).

1.12

Joe Sakic (Zalex)

History: 33,28,10,8,15,10,12

Sakic is also on schedule. Personally, I'd rather have Recchi, though, due to the extra agility, but they're otherwise really similar.

1.13

Doug Gilmour (Vocally Caged)

History: 12,8,13,10,10,9,13

Killer is finally drafted. Historically, his average and median draft position has been 10th, which is actually the 8th-highest median-average (there is a huge dropoff after the first 7, and he's got the highest average of that clump of "not quite elite" guys). He can check, is quick, and has a decent shot. All around, a great centreman to build a team around, and definitely a steal at 13th.

1.14

Mark Recchi (hokkee)

History: 27,20,19,17,22,14,13

This is Recchi's top draft position, and isn't un-earned. As said before, he's very similar to Sakic. 6 weight, 5/4 speed, and a 4/5 shot. He helped me have the most one-timer shots in the league in GDL2 (6.4 shots/gm).

1.15

Petr Klima (Freydey)

History: 53,35,21,6,14,19,15

No wonder takeyourpill won GDL 1, picking up Klima in the 3rd round!

Klima has been consistently overlooked in the draft. He's not too different from Gartner and Modano, except that his Offensive and Defensive Awareness attributes are a disappointing 3 and 2. He has excellent breakaway awareness, though! This is 4 picks earlier than predicted, but is definitely not a bad pick.

1.16

Don Sweeney (Carse)

History: 43,18,29,20,32,17,15

This is the 2nd time Sweeney's been drafted before Bourque, as the first defenseman. It's about time people have caught on that he's the most dominant defenseman in the game!

[jrodimus]

It's about time people have caught on that he's the most dominant defenseman in the game!

cosign.

Sweeney almost single-handedley got me to the GDL6 final.

[smozoma]

1.17

Luc Robitaille (nationals1)

History: 11,30, 34,33, 18,29, 17

Robitaille is the only guy to jump from the 2nd round in GDL6 to the 1st round this draft. Other than GDL1, this is his highest draft spot. Maybe the 4th-best shot in the game (tied with Lemieux and Lindros), but with a decent 7 weight. If you want a shooter, probably the best pick left, except maybe Sandstrom.

1.18

Cliff Ronning (flasox24)

History: 62,55, 40,24, 17,23, 18

flasox24 obviously read the notes (hardeeharhar) on Cliff and took him 18th. Not much of a shooter (3/3), but a great checking centreman at 5 weight and 5 speed. This is the first season where Ronning didn't get drafted earlier than the previous draft.

1.19

Wayne Gretzky (shifty556)

History: 16,16, 17,23, 25,16, 19

This is a tad later than usual for the Great one. Best passer in the game and a solid checker.

1.20

Russ Courtnall (IceStorm70)

History: 37,25, 20,13, 11,18, 19

Who would expect a forward rated just 73 would be a consistent first-round pick? He's got great 5/6 speed, but his stickhandling (3) and shooting (4/3) aren't the greatest. This is actually a bit later than usual (those 13 and 11 picks seem a bit early.. but his speed can be a game-changer)

1.21

Mario Lemieux (Mahavishnu)

History: 9,1, 2,19, 24,15, 21

After going 9th and 1st in the first two drafts, Lemieux is settling down as a late-1st-round pick. Too heavy to live up to his 99 rating, but still the most skilled player in the game. He's got the best breakaway deke hands, and a great 4/6 one-timer shot. Just don't stickhandle too close to any other player, or he'll be on his face on the ice...

1.22

Sergei Fedorov (hokkee)

History: 44,27, 24,36, 16,20, 22

This is a tiny bit earlier than predicted, but fedorov's draft position bounces around a lot. He's a good all-around player.

1.23

Pat LaFontaine (Orangeblack)

History: 19,7, 28,32, 23,21, 23

He's overrated at 91, but still a good player in the late first round. He brings checking, passing, and decent speed, but a disappointing 3/4 shot.

[RedWingDevil]

Controlling speedsters and knowing what to do when using them can create many opportunities to score since you can do a bit of everything with them, provided you can compensate whatever shortcomings they may have.

Uuuuggghh, LaFontaine! The guy's been a bane to my existance for as long as I have been a member of the commnunity. Well, he's got nice speed, plenty enough to follow Mogilny; his light weight along with his good checking can be nice for players that need someone on crowd control and on top of that his stick handling and passing are nice. I tell ya, no respect.

[smozoma]

Things aren't as exciting to write about 2nd round, so I'll just mention the interesting stuff.

Note: when i talk about a player's average draft position, I'm counting just GDL2-6. GDL1 was too crazy (not that GDL2 was that much better). And actually, i'm taking the average of the average and the median(middle) draft positions.

Players to not repeat in the 1st round from GDL6:

Ray Bourque drops from 24th to.. 24th. Why are there only 23 GDL teams this season? :/ Were there 24 last season?

Bondra drops from 22nd to 29th.

That's it! Not many surprises in terms of the round as a whole.

Round 2

2.1 (24)

Ray Bourque

History: 14,15, 16,18, 21,24, 24

Bourque finally falls out of the 1st round (I think GDL had 24 teams last season?). Anyway, I think Bourque is the only player to never improve his draft position.

2.7 (30)

Geoff Courtnall

History: 32,60, 59,43, 40,44, 30

Best draft position ever for Vancouver's 3rd speedster. His average was 46, so this is a big jump.

2.8 (31)

Brian Bradley

He's been the first 3-speed guy drafted every season.

2.9 (32)

Jimmy Carson

History: 94,67, 43,98, 116,82, 32

This could live on as one of the worst GDL picks ever. Why not take Gary Roberts, who's very similar, but weighs 7, not 9? His average draft position is 82nd, which is a mid-4th-round pick. Does Houli know something we don't? Or is it the other way around?

2.11 (34)

Petr Svoboda

History: 49,63, 66,28, 41,54, 34

Svoboda, all-time GDL PIM leader (as of GDL5, anyway), goes 34th, well ahead of his average of 52nd. Will his 'triplet brothers' Zhitnik and Lidstrom be soon to go? (Answer: no, they went 48th and 52nd, pretty much on schedule)

2.19 (42)

Tom Barrasso

History: 22,50, 47,64, 58,49, 42

This is the earliest Barrasso has gone since GDL1 (which was also the only other time he was drafted before Joseph). This could spark a goalie rush...

2.23 (46)

Adam Oates

History: 17,32, 27,42, 37,42, 46

This is the latest Oates has ever gone. He's got skill, but he's not much of a scorer or defender. Pure passers just aren't that important in GDL.

Round 3

The goalie rush:

Essensa: 49th, earliest ever (average: 56)

Ranford: 51st, earliest since I was stupid and took him 29th in GDL2 (average: 67 even with my 29th)

Cheveldae: 54th, earliest ever (average: 67)

Soderstrom: 54th, 2nd earliest (average: 63)

Hextall: 57, earliest ever (average: 73)

Moog: 60, earliest ever (average: 87, late 4th round!)

to be continued...

3.7 (53)

Sergei Makarov

History: 93,66, 61,57, 54,68, 53

Earliest ever for Makarovi and Cheese. One of the few guys left with 5 passing, but also has a nice 6 weight and 5/4 skating.

3.12 (58)

Pelle Eklund

History: 72,77, 64,60, 45,35, 58

Eklund's trend of improving 10+ spots per year ends, dropping him back to his average, 58th.

3.16 (63)

Evgeny Davydov

History: 124,106, 94,67, 63,83, 62

The sub-in from the Jets gets his highest draft position ever. An all-around good player. How did he go 124th in GDL1!

Edited February 4, 2010 by smozoma