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BLITZ 08 TEAM REVIEW - Ottawa Senators - B LEAGUE


LA Robbie

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At Probob's request here is my review of his Ottawa Senators. Comments welcome

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BLITZ 08 TEAM REVIEW - Ottawa Senators - B LEAGUE

STRENGTHS
* Varied goalscoring threats on offence
* Incredible offensive, playmaking D
* Elite goal tending
WEAKNESSES
* Poor checking ability throughout the team
* Vulnerable to the counter-attack?
TEAM OVERVIEW
After reaching the Blitz 07 B semi-finals in his debut season Ottawa Senators' coach Probob found himself in a low draft position with a team already lacking any major stars. He appears to have done well then to put together a similar standard roster this season, which has arguably been enhanced slightly by the addition of two star-quality signings and a deeper bench.
The jury is still out on whether this group can play elite offence, and time will tell if the defensive changes will produce more goals than they keep out. There's plenty to like about this roster, and it has as Probob himself points out: "4 players who appeared in the 07 A league finals", but ultimately have last season's shortcomings been addressed?
OFFENCE
Last season's workman like offensive line of Pat LaFontaine, Joe Nieuwendyk & Kevin Stevens may not have been the most sexy of trios, but there's no doubting they achieved a certain degree of effectiveness. In addition to Nieuwendyk's 115 point, 66 goal season (a career 2nd best) LaFontaine & Stevens weighed in with 80 & 78 points respectively to propel the Senators into 7th place in the standings, and ultimately a semi-final spot. LaFontaine & Stevens were both allowed to leave in the draft in order to take the team in a new direction, but these guys have to be replaced, so how has it been done?
Well, first of all Joe Nieuwendyk has been retained as the hub of the team, and a quick look at his career stats show that this guy is a stunning 2nd round protect. Apart from a rough 52 point season for Houly in the A league with the NYI in Blitz 06 he's never been below a 90 point season, and 3 times over 100. With 8 weight and 4/4 skating he can run & gun, his 4/4 shot will score slappers & one-timers and he produces almost 2.4 points a game, which is pretty much elite. Ottawa start off with a top-level centre leading the line again this season.
So, who are Nieuwendyk's new offensive partners? On one side he's going to be supported by A league champion Stephane Richer, & on the other, A league runner-up Geoff Sanderson. Certainly some pedigree there, but will they add up to more than LaFontaine & Stevens?
Richer brings to Ottawa probably the one offensive quality they sorely lacked in Blitz 07 - A HUGE shot. Richer's 5 shot power is a real weapon, and one that helped him to 81 goals in his 124 point season for Fredey's Montreal Canadiens last season. He averages just over 2 points per game (0.1 better than LaFontaine) in his Blitz career, but his 3 shot accuracy may be a problem. Last season was the first time he's broken 100 points, and 53 goals was his previous career best in Blitz 01. With 4/4 skating and 9 weight he has the ability to ride the big hits, and he should suit Probob's tendency to break in off the wing looking for the slapper or the one-timer set up down to the ground.
On the other wing there's Sanderson. Brought in with Tim Cheveldae as part of a trade which saw Dave Manson go to Dallas. He brings more A league big-game experience. His 6 weight and 4/4 skating is much more similar to LaFontaine than Richer, and he also has a nice 4/4 shot too. Really he's the polar opposite to the 2-way physical play of Stevens from last season, but in many ways he's still an unproven quantity. Aside from his 103 points for the Dallas Stars in 07 his 95 point season for the Canadiens in 04 is the only other season that he's ever excelled in. In three of his 7 Blitz seasons he hasn't even been a starter & he averages just 1.3 points a game, 0.3 per game less than Kevin Stevens, and without the defensive qualities. Which player has Probob got? The 100 point championship contender, or the bit-part squad player?
With Richer & Sanderson Ottawa certainly look to have provided more potential for goals from other areas, but it's worth noting that both have only 3 passing compared to Stevens' & LaFontaine's 4 & 5 passing respectively. Has Nieuwendyk's supply line dried up? It's certainly a completely new dynamic this season which may require a strategy change on Probob's part to make work effectively.
Whilst Nieuwendyk & Richer have a physical presence in possession, with Stevens gone another area lacking now is possibly the support on D from the offence, which is probably why Mark Janssens has been added to this season's roster. Janssens has never been used as anything more than a defensive enforcer, with only 50 appearances in his Blitz career. Besides his 11 weight & big 4 checking he actually has nice 3/3 skating and a 3/3 shot, so don't be surprised if this becomes a breakthrough season for him if the probable starters are leaving the Senators too open without the puck. He's actually the team's biggest checker by some way, and that could end up being a very important characteristic as the season goes on because he's the only big defensive option available on the roster. A solid looking member of the team & a logical addition.
Valeri Zelepukin has been kept on the roster from 07 & looks a nice option off the bench here too. With 6 weight & 4/4 skating he's a very similar player to Sanderson, but whereas his 3/3 shot is inferior he's actually the best passer on the Senators' offensive line with a 4 rating. He's only made 28 regular season appearances in his Blitz career, but if Richer & Sanderson are struggling to be providers to Nieuwey, Zelepukin is another who could be in for a breakthrough season. Look out for the man who could end up being Ottawa's best playmaker this season.
Tony Amonte completes the forward line for Blitz 08. He's technically another A league champion, having played 9 games for Montreal last season. With 4/4 skating and a solid 3/3 shot & 3 pass he's another useful little player who could provide another playmaking option on the wing in case of injuries, but no doubt he's at the bottom of the pecking order in this group.
DEFENCE
It's in defence that Ottawa have undergone the biggest change this pre-season. A lot was expected in Blitz 07 of the powerful, big-hitting partnership of Dave Manson & Mark Tinordi, who ultimately failed to deliver. The 160 goals conceded in the regular season of Blitz 07 was the worst of the teams that made the playoffs. However, far from trying to sure things up this season Ottawa have gone for a new offensive style that compliments their coach's more attacking game which has developed over the past year.
When the Senators traded their 1st round protect pick of Kevin Stevens in the draft it was to get their hands on this man: Paul Coffey. Ray Bourque aside he's the game's most devastating playmaker defenceman. Last season his 6/5 skating, 6 stick handling & 5 passing helped Coffey to weigh in with an incredible 24 goals and 44 assists during Montreal's title charge. His size coupled with that amazing speed & agility gets him into goalscoring positions (Almost a goal every 2 games!) that few other defenders can, and the laser-accurate passing will regularly find the open man to rack up the assists. Coffey is basically like having an extra forward on your team, and was a key part of the Canadiens' title run last season.
Although his biggest strengths are on offence, and he only boasts a checking rating of 2 Coffey still seems capable of playing a rugged physical game without the puck. He perhaps wont take down the like of Lindros or Messier with a C check, but he can still hold his own against most forwards, and he'll actually often nick the puck off an opponent's stick just in the act of a collision or light clash. He may not be an elite defensive dominator, but his size, speed & technical skills make him a very complete player on both sides of the puck.
Looking set to partner Coffey is last season's 3rd choice D-man Frank Musil. At 9 weight and 3 checking he's actually the biggest hitter the Senators have on D & that could be very important as Coffey goes off on his offensive charges. His 4/4 skating also ensures he has the pace to recover his position against all but the fastest opponents.
Fredrik Olausson looks like the 3rd choice Dman here. 4/3 skating, 4 stick handling and passing and a nice 4/2 shot suggest he'll be Coffey's understudy. However, despite these nice offensive qualities may be undermined by his terrible 1 checking. The guy hits like Betty White! Probob had better work on his B checking!
Mark Howe completes the defensive line. With 3/3 skating, 3 stick handling & 3 passing he's another solidly skilled player, but at 6 weight & 3 checking he's also not the most physical and another that will require extensive use of the B check.
This really is a major shift in defensive style for Ottawa. Clearly the aim is to provide goals & assists from defence this season, but could this leave them open to the counter-attack? Frank Musil looks like the only guy liable to stay home while the rest of the team are out to play, and there's also a severe lack of checking ability here. How badly might Dave Manson be missed? It looks like Ottawa are going to be all-out offence & results may hinge on how many goals this D provides against how many they keep out.
GOALIES
As part of the deal that sent Dave Manson to Dallas Ottawa have got themselves an elite goal tender in Tim Cheveldae, a major upgrade on John Vanbiesbrk. 5 agility, 4 speed, 4 puck control, 5/4 stick and 4/4 gloves. This guy has everything you need for great manual control & auto saves too. He'll also produce less of those irritating basic errors that can often cost you games. There are only a handful more reliable between the pipes and although Manson looks a loss Cheveldae looks a big gain.
Rick Knickle is this season's back up. As solid as the back ups come really, but if you leave him on auto you're gonna be asking for trouble!
STARS
Joe Nieuwendyk is once again the big goal threat down the centre & the Senators will hope for another 100+ point season. He'll be ably supported by Stephane Richer who's likely to weigh in with a number of goals off his big 5/3 shot and will probably be the team's biggest assister too.
On D Paul Coffey is this team's mega star. He's going to get goals, set them up & still have the speed & power to get back on D. With Tim Cheveldae in goal Ottawa also have elite goal tending which all adds up to a strong spine right the way through the team.
WEAKNESSES
Whilst all the forwards on this roster have varied strengths which make them a goal threat, do they lack a playmaker to supply Joe Nieuwendyk? Paul Coffey looks like he's going to be heavily involved in the offensive strategy to compensate for offensive shortcomings, which in turn could leave the Senators open to the counter-attack.
In addition the lack of specialist checkers, minus Mark Janssens on the forward line, could make it difficult for Ottawa to stifle a game. After Janssens there's no one with more than a 3 checking rating and the lack of ability to play high pressure D & strangle the opponent's momentum may determine whether they can close out a tight game or if it will just come down to a straight shootout.
SEASON PREDICTION: PLAYOFFS
Whilst the changes made to the roster perhaps present different problems than before rather than a great leap in quality it does seem there are now key areas that they can win a game from, whether that be from Coffey's charges from deep & elite playmaking skills, a big save from Cheveldae or the varied qualities of the forward line. They probably pose more problems than before.
For me success hinges on the cohesion of the forward line to successfully combine like last season, and perhaps more than that their vulnerability to the counter-attack. The combination of Coffey being more part of the offence than the defence and the lack of a truly dominant defensive partner could leave the Senators open against the league's best offences. Will they be good enough to go toe-to-toe in an end to goal fest & come out on top?
Edited by LA Robbie
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Few thoughts: While the 160 GA was only tied for 7th in B last season, the +2 goal differential didn't matchup with their 19 win season, implying the regular season record should've been better. The semi-final appearance also supports that. But yes, the Manson-Tinordi pairing underachieved aside from that 1st round playoff series.

Olausson will start over Musil. Trying a moneyball philosophy where we're looking to give up fewer goals by possessing the puck more, rather than looking for top tier defensive d-men who just check people. We were looking for D who could manage the game.

Cheveldae is a significant upgrade over Vanbiesbrouck but I also wouldn't consider him "elite." I believe Raph had him as the #9 goalie in those rankings he did.

Exis overall have been pretty low scoring. I don't think games will be as wide open as expected unless we're forced into it.

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Remember he'll have been bumped a touch for Blitz. 5/4 agilty/speed, 4 puck control, 5/4 stick, 4/4 gloves........v hard to go to another level outside of the top 2 or 3

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