Gens A Mid-season Report

[angryjay93]

Hello buds, AJ is here and ready to take a look at whats going on so far in Gens A league. Will Kingraph continue to struggle? Will Zeppelin and Hokkee continue with their winning ways? Is Pittsburgh for real? The truth is I dunno, but lets pretend I do and possibly we can all learn something together.

First...stats!

And now a note on what PDO is

Now, lets investigate each team and see how their stats match with their record, highest point total first.

Calgary (Hokkee) 40 pts in 32 games- Despite being outscored and out shot this season, Calgary still has some possible room for improvement in performance with middle of the pack save percentage numbers and shooting percent. With only Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Winnipeg left on his schedule, Hokkee still has some tough matchups ahead, but by going .500 he would finish 24-16. That should be good enough for a playoff spot where he can take advantage of some good matchups and his current underlying numbers wont be a barometer for his future success.

Los Angeles (Habs) 30 pts in 24 games- Habs seems to be finding his way with opportunistic scoring (2nd in shot %) and a a formidable defense, but it's no sure thing that such success will continue. With Detroit, Dallas, Chicago, and Vancouver left on the schedule, LA may struggle in these uptempo matches as LA is no where near as formidable on defense as those other squads. Habs is a top quality player and that should help offset some of his matchup issues. The playoffs look well within reach.

Pittsburgh (Angryjay) 28 points in 16 games- So far so good for the Pittsburgh boys, the numbers agree nicely with everything so far and even the PDO isn't entirely out of whack. Alas, some regression is in store for Pittsburgh, there is no way giving up south of 8 shots a game can continue. With Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Winnipeg, & Calgary left on the schedule, there is a lot of speed left in this league that Pittsburgh hasn't dealt with. Also Toronto and Montreal's light weight ways provide their own issues for a beefy Pittsburgh squad. Angryjay has been playing well no doubt, but the shine will come off a little on his way to a comfortable playoff birth.

Toronto (Vocally Caged) 28 points in 23 games- Another team with dominating shot statistics and a PDO that doesn't scream obvious regression, Toronto is possibly even playing better than their record suggests. Teams with speed give Toronto some issues, half of Toronto's games remaining feature an opponent with at least one 5+ speed player. Some trepidation about playoff positioning remains but if Toronto continues playing the way they have, they should come out just fine on the other side.

Buffalo (Zeppelin) 26 points in 19 games- The first team with some glaring red flags in their statistical performance in relation to their record. Buffalo has been out shot by more than 2+ shots a game while outscoring their opponent by over a goal a game. They own the highest save percentage and the highest shot percentage stat which gives them a ridiculous 1189 PDO rating. Mogilny is decidedly a one man team as well as he leads his team in offense by 224% over the next player! Yet here Buffalo is, in contention for the playoffs. Will Buffalo continue to ride this wave of success or will the small sample demons catch up with him and devour his season?

Montreal (Depch) 20 points in 15 games- First in scoring fourth in defense is a good recipe for success. Everything looks pretty good although that PDO is a bit high for my liking. Despite that, Depch has been playing well and hasn't been getting fat on jobbers. He has enough cushion built into his performance to withstand a little drop in PDO luck.

Bostong (Kingraph) 16 points in 22 games- A real surprise here, while Boston does have its warts, I and most everyone else expected Raph to be able to overcome them with ease. Despite outscoring his opponents, Raph sits 6 games under .500 . Increasing his meager 11 shots pergame to a more Raph like total of 13 or 14 would do wonders as that extra goal per game would likely eliminate any issues he is having pulling points out of closely fought games. Raph has yet to play a struggling Rangers squad and still has games with Chicago and Dallas left. He is still in the driver seat, he just needs to win his games.

Quebec (Smozoma) 15 points in 20 games- Smozoma is doing his usual thing by grinding it out in low event affairs with middling success. He is the first guy we've come across with a low PDO, a little more puck luck should do him wonders in his tightly contested games. Boston, Buffalo, Dallas, Winnipeg, and Chicago represent tough games for Quebec, perhaps Smoz missed his window to pad his record a little bit before venturing down this gauntlet?

Vancouver (SicariusFulgar) 5 points in 14 games- This is no slight on Sic, but that PDO figure is hilariously low at 825. Its unsustainable, Vancouver will see a rise in their shooting % by default over the course of the season. One positive stat is that Sic is out shooting his opponents and keeping Vancouver a very tough nut to open on defense. Lots of games left with teams in front of him, he has the squad to reverse his fortunes and make a run for that 8th spot. He can't waste too much more time or those small sample demons will devour his season.

Dallas (Swos) 4 points in 5 games- Not much to work with here, Swos future lies entirely in how he deals with the transition to pad.

Detroit (Brutus) 4 points in 8 games- Again, not a lot to to work with here. Gotta like the fact that Brutus is out shooting his opponents comfortably and his pathetic PDO should only rise. Plenty of time left for him, could throw a wrench into the playoff plans of Kingraph or Swos if he struggles with pad.

New York (Scribe) 0 points in 18 games- Bad signs all around here. With a low PDO and being outperformed regularly by his opponents, Scribe has struggled in his return to online leagues. He is also 0-5 in 1 goal games this season, no bounces to be found this season for the blue shirts. There is still enough time here for Scribe to figure things out and optimize his lineup for a respectable season. The playoffs on the other hand, not likely without some DNP shenanigans.

Winnipeg (Tomkabs) and Chicago (gretzkyonacold) 0 points in 0 games- Hope to see you guys around soon, I know Hokkee restlessly awaits you.

[chaos]

Nice write up! I hope you didn't try to compile those stats manually: http://www.nhl94online.com/html/team_stats.php?lg=25&sublg=GENS-A&disp=se

[angryjay93]

Nice write up! I hope you didn't try to compile those stats manually: http://www.nhl94online.com/html/team_stats.php?lg=25&sublg=GENS-A&disp=se

Fack...me....

[kylewat]

Almost got outshot in B league. My save percentage has been unreal for me. Fuhr is good, and my manual has been at times off the charts good. I don't understand the PDO exactly. Is it expected to follow a certain number?

For what it is worth, I take high percentage shots, and Hawerchuck tends to miss the goal or score. Missed shots don't count. Also skating into the goal, nor pass shots count as shots.

Edited April 9, 2015 by kylewat

[LA Robbie]

I have now returned from my trip to Europe & am fighting the jetlag. I will be looking to play some exhibs this weekend as I am so out of practice. Next week i'll look to get going with my games. The same counts for Blitz.

While I was away I neither had the time, nor acceptable hotel internet so I will have to hammer the games out from now.

Thanks guys. Nice write up AJ

[LA Robbie]

Just to update, i've been dead busy since I got back, catching up on work stuff, working from home. I will try to get some exhibs in tomorrow but if not don't worry. Once i'm back into the routine with everything up to date i'll be good to go again

[HABS]

Just saw this now. Cool write up AJ!

But I disagree about PDO in 94. I've always been relatively low on the shot number and have been outshot in a number of seasons looking at blitz and probably gdl.

Then theres guys like SOH who shoot a ton of shots consistently in every league. Just different styles.

[smozoma]

Pass-shots also completely ruin PDO. Guys who use it a lot will have inflated shooting %s.

[angryjay93]

Just saw this now. Cool write up AJ!

But I disagree about PDO in 94. I've always been relatively low on the shot number and have been outshot in a number of seasons looking at blitz and probably gdl.

Then theres guys like SOH who shoot a ton of shots consistently in every league. Just different styles.

I think you're thinking of corsi and fenwick? Those stats measure shots attempted and against. PDO is purely shot % + save percentage%. 100% is still a normalized number because league wide shot % + save percentage % will always equal 100%.

Pass-shots also completely ruin PDO. Guys who use it a lot will have inflated shooting %s.

Yes, this is a flaw with the PDO stat in the '94 world. I dont think pass shooting will baloon a percentage too out of whack and there is usually a few guys in the league who still have a very high shot % without utilizing pass shots. I still agree its a somewhat flawed statistic in '94 but I think it paints a good general picture to see who has been very lucky or not.

[kylewat]

Coach	Team	GP	GF	GA	GF/G	GA/G	GDif	SF/G	SA/G	SDif	S%F	S%A	PDO
zeppelin55	BUF	23	112	75	4.64	3.11	1.53	9.9	11.2	-1.3	49.3	29.1	1202
Depch	MTL	23	108	88	4.47	3.64	0.83	11.5	12.7	-1.2	40.9	30.2	1107
canadiensfan66	LA	24	106	90	4.17	3.54	0.63	10.1	10.7	-0.5	43.6	35.2	1084
Vocally Caged	TOR	28	130	113	4.38	3.8	0.58	11.5	10.7	0.8	40.4	37.8	1026
kingraph	BOS	29	150	122	4.98	4.05	0.93	12.2	10.4	1.8	42.5	40.5	1020
angryjay93	PIT	28	137	96	4.75	3.33	1.42	12.5	9.1	3.4	39.1	37.8	1013
hokkeefan2	CGY	32	119	130	3.53	3.86	-0.33	10.7	11.1	-0.5	34.9	36.5	984
smozoma	QUE	20	57	81	2.7	3.83	-1.13	9.6	11	-1.5	29.8	36.8	930
scribe99	NYR	25	66	127	2.55	4.91	-2.36	8.7	12	-3.3	30.4	42.5	879
swos	DAL	11	33	54	2.92	4.78	-1.86	11	12.1	-1.1	27.3	40.6	867
Sicarius Fulgur	VAN	18	40	61	2.15	3.28	-1.13	10.9	9.9	0.9	20.4	34.1	863
brutus	DET	17	66	87	3.88	5.12	-1.24	12.9	11.7	1.2	30	43.7	863

My stranglehold on luck statistic continues to grow.

Edited April 17, 2015 by kylewat

[angryjay93]

Hey everybody I'm back with another report as we play the final third of the season over the next week. Lets take a look at some updated statistics

Again I'll break down each team starting with the highest point total first.

Pittsburgh 46 pts: Remaining (DAL & CGY x2; STL X1)

After a sizzling start, the Pens fell back to Earth and the heart of the playoff race with a 2-8 stretch against some key foes. AJ was able to reestablish the early season TRAPON recently and the team has won 4 of its last 5 and has likely given themselves enough breathing room to ensure a playoff spot. The shots against has risen to above 9 which was to be expected as the sub 8 total at the midway point was simply unsustainable in such a competitive league.

Winnipeg 44 pts: Remaining (BUF x4; CGY & LA x2; DAL x1)

Tomkabs has wasted no time and announced his presence with authority. First in offense & defense the Jets have the inside track on the #1 seed in the league and appear to be the odds on favorite for the cup currently. The only red flag in the statistical performance is the relatively high 1079 PDO and even that shouldn’t be given much credence because every other statistic shows that WPG dominates its opponents.

Calgary 40 pts: Remaining (STL x 4; PIT &WPG x2)

Hokkee has done some serious slacking and hasn’t played a game since my previous review. Nothing new to report here since CGY is totally dependent on a good matchup in the playoffs and the somewhat lackluster statistical performance may not project future success. A strong finish could wrap up a #2 seed and keep Hokkee away from Tomkabs until the finals.

Toronto 38 pts: Remaining (MTL X4; STL X1)

Toronto seems to be fighting things lately as their favorable statistical performance has started to trend the other way. The main difference seems to be shot differential as Toronto was averaging 2 more shots than their opponent early in the season. This has reversed and now Toronto is being slightly outshot which seems to have made a world of difference as most every other stat has stayed relatively stable. The set with Montreal is key, a good performance could ensure a playoff spot while a disaster would make the final days of the season nerve wracking to say the least.

Buffalo 34 pts: Remaining (Que, WPG & MTL x4; DET x3; STL x2)

Buffalo continues to spit into the wind of statistical logic and is riding an even higher 1202 PDO as they still largely control their own destiny in the push for a top seed. While looking at the statistics, it may be difficult to see how the Sabres knock off the Jets but we can’t completely disregard it as Zepp continues to produce positive results. Zepp is slowly whittling away at his negative shot differential and if he can continue to do that while riding his PDO, his goal differential will become scary good. Impossible to project where Zepp will end up but a playoff spot seems in the cards.

Los Angeles 34 pts: Remaining (STL, DAL & VAN x4; WPG x2)

Another team riding a negative shot differential and high PDO is Habs and his LA Kings. There are some tricky games still left on his schedule and a poor run of games could leave LA’s playoff spot in serious doubt. Going 7-7 in this home stretch would be more than enough for the Kings qualify for the playoffs as he is mostly playing against people chasing him. Lastly, props to Habs for maintaining a fantastic 3.77 GAA with Hrudey and that lame brain defense he’s working with.

Montreal 33 pts: Remaining (TOR & BUF x4; STL & VAN x2)

Montreal has not been trending in a positive direction as of late. What was once a very fine statistical line is starting to look dire and a high PDO of 1074 is propping up the Habs playoff positioning. Some luck trending in the other direction in games against divisional foes Toronto and Buffalo could prove catastrophic and knock Depch out of the playoff picture all together. Games against a typically dominant KGman don’t bode well either and I wouldn’t be surprised if Montreal slips out of contention over the final days.

Detroit 30 pts: Remaining (BUF x3)

Abysmal goaltending by Chevelde seems to be what cost Detroit its chance at sneaking into the playoffs. Despite a league average offence, Brut languished with a 903 PDO which will usually damn a team no matter how well it plays. If the season were perhaps 10 games longer Brut may have been a player as he did seem to figure his team out a bit more as the season went on.

Boston 28 pts: Remaining (STL x4; DAL & QUE x2; NYR x1)

Despite averaging nearly a goal more than their opposition, Boston still languishes on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. It seems that quite simply Boston either wins big or loses close and they will need to figure out how to win close because being 1-11 in one goal games up to this point obviously isn't cutting it. The schedule couldn’t be much better with three games against the two last place teams in their division and 6 games against teams trying to chase down the final playoff spots. Win and their in, King has left himself no more room for mistakes.

Quebec 17 pts: Remaining (BUF x4; STL x3; DAL & BOS x2)

Very little has changed for Queebc in a statistical sense and that has unfortunately all but doomed their playoff hopes. Even if Smoz managed to pull off an 11-0 run, it would leave him at 39 points and that likely won’t cut it.

Vancouver 15 pts: Remaining (DAL x5; STL & LA x4; MTL x2)

Perhaps if we were playing NHL ’96 and Sic was provided with the New Jersey Devils then just maybe he would be owning this league. The low event “Is it TRAPON or is the GAMEEVENON?” game style has translated into a still bizarrely low 856 PDO that is dragged down solely by a 22.50% shot conversion rate. While mathematically alive, it would take a drastic turn of events for Vancouver to make the necessary run to qualify.

Dallas 13 pts: Remaining (24 games)

I still have no clue what to make of Swos, the statistical performance is poor and he is handicapping himself with a gamepad. He still has a boatload of games to work with and if he can tap into his usual keyboard performances he can still squeak into the playoffs.

St. Louis 12 pts: Remaining (29 games)

KGman is playing some average hockey and he’s one game over .500 currently. Finally, someone that makes some damn sense around here. KG is the real wild card here, if he knocks the rust off and wins his share of games you have to like his chances to get to the playoffs and make noise as he has made championship runs with equally as talent inept teams. How his situation plays out will be interesting to watch.

Rangers 10 pts: Remaining (DAL X4; BOS x1)

Some minor statistical and luck improvements has allowed Scribe to get off the schnide and get some victories under his belt. His persistence is paying off and he can still play spoiler to a couple of the big guns who are struggling this season.

Projected Final Standings

1. Winnipeg (Eastern Champ)

2. Los Angeles (West Champ)

3. Buffalo

4. Pittsburgh

5. Calgary

6. St. Louis

7. Toronto

8. Boston

9. Montreal

10. Dallas

11. Detroit

12. Vancouver

13. Quebec

14. Rangers

Good luck to everyone the rest of the way, lets try to get 100% games played!

[kingraph]

Hey everybody I'm back with another report as we play the final third of the season over the next couple weeks.

Season ends May 4th!

http://forum.nhl94.com/index.php/topic/16808-classic-season-extended-deadline-now-5415/