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Spring'15 GENS A Playoff Vegas Odds


kingraph

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Spring 2015 GENS A Vegas Playoff Odds!

With only the top 8 teams out of 14 making the playoffs, I don't think any of the 1st round matchups league will be easy. Honestly, you can mix/match everything here and it will all be close. Shaping out to be a very tough and exciting playoffs!

Place your bets!

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1. Buffalo (zeppelin55) -110
8. Boston (kingraph) +100

Season series: BUF 2-0

Zeppelin has come from winning the B cup last year to finishing in the first seed in a very competitive A league this year! Anybody who has underestimated him previously has paid the price, so kingraph must prepare for a battle in this series. Mogilny is the key to this Buffalo team's offense and Zeppelin also finished 3rd in GA/G, utilizing Fuhr effectively. On the flip side, kingraph's Bruins were lucky to squeeze into the playoffs after a subpar season. While Mogilny is the focus on Buffalo, the Bruins have spread the scoring out amongst the starting 5 more so than any other team this season (though LA spread it out evenly among their F), which means Zeppelin will have to stay consistent on Defense. The regular season games were close, one went to OT and the other was a 5-3 Buffalo victory, despite a huge attack zone differential in Boston's favor. Despite the 1-8 matchup, I predict that this series will be just as close as the others and the Bruins will find a way to squeeze in a 1st round upset just as they squeezed in the playoffs.

Prediction: BOS in 6 (don't I have to? :P )

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4. Pittsburgh (angryjay93) +100
5. Montreal (Depch)
-125

Season series: MTL 3-1

A great matchup here. Depch is the reigning "A" league champion and is playing extremely well with Montreal. AJ has returned to form and is making the most of Pittsburgh, a highly talented team, but generally heavy for Genesis. Montreal matches up very well against Pittsburgh with their lightweight skilled guys, and Roy will not let up easy goals. Having said that, both coaches are able to score goals, finishing 3rd and 4th in GF/G, but AJ finished 2nd in GA/G in the league while Depch was in the middle of the pack, which is a bit of a concern. The season series went to MTL, with 2 very close games won by MTL, one clear victory, and the PIT win was a 10-0 shocker. So really, I can talk myself into either of these two teams winning, but I will go with my favorite indicator of team strength (GF/G - GA/G) and choose PIT to win a 7 game wild scoring series.

Prediction: PIT in 7

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3. Winnipeg (TomKabs93) -110
6. Dallas (swos)
+150

Season series: WPG 2-1

Woah. Throw the seedings out the window, these are two '94 powerhouses matched up in a tough first round. Dallas' record is a little warped as swos started the season practicing on a gamepad (in prep for Toronto...I hope you come!), which is not his input method of choice going 2-8-1 in his first 11 games. Switching back to keyboard, swos is notably stronger, and is playing like the favorite I set out in my regular season odds. Meanwhile in Winnipeg....RUST? SHMUST. TomKabs blew up the league by leading in GF/G (5.55) AND GA/G (3.14), and also led the league in win%. He probably would've been the first seed had Hokkeefan not disappeared into the woods, but at the same time TK was out the first 4-5 weeks of the season. Even though Selanne is a clear superstar, TK spreads it out more than would be expected with Winnipeg, using Davydov and Zhamnov nicely. Dallas is also dispersed nicely. It's clear this is one of the more difficult matchups in the first round, as either of these two could be considered favorites to win the league. I'm giving TK and the Winnipeg Jets the edge here, in a close one.

Prediction: WPG in 7

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2. Los Angeles (canadiensfan66) -200
7. Toronto (Vocally Caged)
+350

Season series: LAK 2-0

While HABS and the Los Angeles Kings are the biggest favorites I have listed in the 1st round, the regular season matchups suggest this could be a dangerous series for them. Both LAK wins were one goal victories: one in OT, sent there by two late (less than a minute left) 3rd period PP goals by LA in a crushing loss to Toronto, and the other another late goal (13 seconds left) to secure a 4-3 win. That's pretty close and it's clear that Toronto can keep it close and win these games. The key for Toronto is to hold strong at the end of games, not losing focus. Interestingly, Gretzky and Gilmour were tied for the league lead in points with 133. Gilmour had more goals, but Gretzky more assists. Amazingly, LA distributed their goal scoring pretty evenly between Gretzky (51), Sandstrom (59), and Robitaille (47), while Toronto leaned heavily on Gilmour's back. This is an old school Classic matchup between two vets that have been around a while, but I think the Kings have more in the tank for this round and move on in a close, but comfortable series.

Prediction: LAK in 6

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2. Los Angeles (canadiensfan66) -200

7. Toronto (Vocally Caged) +350

Season series: LAK 2-0

While HABS and the Los Angeles Kings are the biggest favorites I have listed in the 1st round, the regular season matchups suggest this could be a dangerous series for them. Both LAK wins were one goal victories: one in OT, sent there by two late (less than a minute left) 3rd period PP goals by LA in a crushing loss to Toronto, and the other another late goal (13 seconds left) to secure a 4-3 win. That's pretty close and it's clear that Toronto can keep it close and win these games. The key for Toronto is to hold strong at the end of games, not losing focus. Interestingly, Gretzky and Gilmour were tied for the league lead in points with 133. Gilmour had more goals, but Gretzky more assists. Amazingly, LA distributed their goal scoring pretty evenly between Gretzky (51), Sandstrom (59), and Robitaille (47), while Toronto leaned heavily on Gilmour's back. This is an old school Classic matchup between two vets that have been around a while, but I think the Kings have more in the tank for this round and move on in a close, but comfortable series.

Prediction: LAK in 6

I think VC will take it just because Kerry Fraser isn't there to hand the game to the Kings :D

nfR02td.jpg

http://www.downgoesbrown.com/2009/08/after-16-years-new-wrinkle-on-kerry.html

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1. Buffalo (zeppelin55)

8. Boston (kingraph)

I treat this matchup as if the seeds are reversed. In my opinion, kingraph has the skill and team advantage. It's tough to argue against kingraph here, as I think no team besides DET comes close to the power that Boston provides.

I predict Boston (kingraph) to win this series in 5 games.

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2. Los Angeles (HABS)

7. Toronto (Vocally Caged)

I don't know too much about these coaches. Both of these coaches lost to Houly back in 2012 and it has ruined my image of both of them. Last time I played Classic, Vocally Caged managed to take 3/4 from me as Toronto, so I like his chances.

I predict Toronto (Vocally Caged) to win this series in 7 games.

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3. Winnipeg (TomKabs)

6. Dallas (swos)

TomKabs is a decent player and will be able to pull out a 3-x lead against swos. However, chances of beating swos in an elimination game are lower than winning the lottery Sebe returning for more than a day. I also do not want TomKabs to win, because I'm rooting for swos to join the Triple Crown Club (Winner of a Classic, GDL and Blitz title).

I predict Dallas (swos) to win this series in 7 games.

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4. Pittsburgh (angryjay93)

5. Montreal (Depch)

I believe angryjay is the better player, but it is pretty close. Depch's strategy of great defense and cheesy offense powered by rebound goal and one timer abuse may prevail, because I would imagine Montreal's light players to be a nasty matchup for Pittsburgh. It really sucks for angryjay, because I believe he is sort of handicapped.

I predict Montreal (Depch) to win this series in 6 games.

Edited by Premium
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3. Winnipeg (TomKabs)

6. Dallas (swos)

TomKabs is a decent player and will be able to pull out a 3-x lead against swos. However, chances of beating swos in an elimination game are lower than winning the lottery Sebe returning for more than a day. I also do not want TomKabs to win, because I'm rooting for swos to join the Triple Crown Club (Winner of a Classic, GDL and Blitz title).

I predict Dallas (swos) to win this series in 7 games.

:angry:

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  • 3 weeks later...

Well, I went 1-3 in my predictions and Plabax went 4-0! Nicely done!

Amazingly, all of the "underdogs" won the opening round series. Seeds 5-8 beat 1-4!

We are now in the next round. MOAR TERRIBLE PREDICTIONS HERE:

5. Montreal (Depch) -110
8. Boston (kingraph) -110

Season series: MTL 2-1

Montreal squeaked out what looked like an epic 7 game series LIVE vs Angryjay's Penguins. Depch has this team playing well and will bring in a mix of Muller/Savard to provide the scoring. Aside from an outlier 7-0 loss in game 5, Montreal scored over 5 goals a game in that series, which is a very high dose. If Depch continues to put up that many goals a game, he'll be poised to win this series. On the flip side, kingraph seems to have gotten his Bruins under control by sweeping the Jets in the first round. The Bruins gave up a bunch of late goals in games 3 and 4 that skewed the numbers, but ultimately their defense was strong all series. Depch has a different style than Zeppelin, so kingraph will definitely have to adjust to keep Montreal from putting up too many goals. Offensively, kingraph has continued to spread the workload amongst his 3 main forwards (Oates, Neely, Juneau), so Depch must keep his eye out on the field vs. focusing on any one player. Should be a great series, I have the odds set at a pick'em!

Prediction: BOS in 7 (again, I have to!)

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6. Dallas (swos) -200
7. Toronto (Vocally Caged)
+350

Season series: DAL 2-0

Swos is cranking up his game and eliminated a formidable opponent in TomKabs (Winnipeg) in 5 games. Again, I think swos with Dallas is an overall favorite to win the league and his first round victory confirms my initial thought. Modano/Courtnall/Gagner is a tough trio to keep up with and that speed will be difficult to keep up with for Toronto. Swos is a top GC player, and Jon Casey leads the playoffs with 3.4 GAA, coming from a series vs the team that led the league in GF/G. Solid all the way around. Vocally Caged is playing cool and confident in the playoffs with Toronto. He beat out the #2 seeded Kings (HABS) in a 7 game thriller. I didn't think Toronto would be able to fend off LA, but they did, so I don't want to underestimate them again! Having said that, swos will be an even bigger challenge. VC will have to get the most out of Dougie Gilmour (perhaps knocking out Modano and Russ for the game early) on both sides of the ice. I hope it's close, but I predict Dallas continues to plow ahead into the Finals.

Prediction: DAL in 5

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I go 1-1 in my round 2 predictions, and unfortunately for me I got my own game wrong! While it didn't go 7 games (Depch beat me in 5), it was a pretty tight battle in all 5 games. Depch managed to squeak a few more goals in than me and moves on to the finals for the second year in a row. Vggs.

Swos took care of business on his end and has now set up an all Finnish final!

5. Montreal (Depch) vs 6. Dallas (6)

Good luck gentlemen, please record the games and don't post results until I had a chance to post the vids!

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