wallywojo Posted October 16, 2015 Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 (edited) I'm doing this with american odds since that makes the most sense to me. This side of the league has many evenly skilled players so I think you may have a coach go 30-10 but mostly i see a lot of coaches finishing around .500 which will make for an excellent playoff. Mav (Detroit) +300 Mav is an excellent veteran and has always been at the top for every season where he was the original coach. You combine his abilities with the best team in classic and that is a winning combination. I see him finishing first in the regular season. Me (Buffalo) +400 I have a good track record in classic and Buffalo is an excellent team. I'm usually defense oriented so I will have to adjust a bit for the strength of Buffalo. darko (Vancouver) +425 With speedy light forwards Vancouver is very dangerous. The difference is playing solid D and manual goalie behind them. I think Darko does this pretty well and I see a great season for him. dexpsu (Winnipeg) +460 Its been a bit it appears since he has played but in the past he had pretty good success. If he pushes the pace with Winnipeg he will be a playoff coach and by the time you get there you have a season of recent experience and who knows. witt (Dallas) +500 I've yet to play against the Vet witt outide of 2 on 2 but I see him having a great season. Just looking at past numbers it seems that his GAA was a bit high but this side doesn't have a lot of the great offensive players like the other side of B. This then won't hurt him much if history is any indicator. jer (Chicago) +525 Jer is a really solid player that has a great lineup for dominating with JR. He can use his one timers and let Roenick run all over the ice on D. I would place jer higher but I think Chicago's O coming from a single source limits them come playoff time when people tighten things up more. pearate (Pittsburgh) +900 Pearate is a solid player but I don't see Pitt being effective in classic. He will have to find ways to keep Mario and the other heavies standing to score. Also on the back end their weight inhibits their capabilities. I think this side will be so close that the team talent is going to make or break seasons. coach (Montreal) +1100 With a great defensive team coach will have a great chance for being in every game. If he can get some scoring from Montreal then that will greatly change how he finishes but I think without the star and limited speed he will have to be playing at the top of his game when he faces the likes of Detroit come playoff time. mikey_mac (Boston) +1300 A good player with a great team in Boston (Evan and Darko had them last year; both in the conference finals and Evan winning . Mikey can score but in the past it looks like keeping them out of the net has been his downfall. I think with AI Ray Bourque and controlled sweeney he has a great chance to improve those numbers. lasyoen (Calgary) +1400 I've exi'd with the man and he is a good player who I believe has been snakebitten in the past. Calgary is a great team and if he can do a great job manual netminding he can move up the ladder. legendofnhl94 (Toronto) +1700 a newcomer (from what i can see, no past history in old stats) so who knows what can happen. With Killer you can never go wrong and a good D corp Toronto is a solid team but a bit limited in speed. Usually first timers have a learning curve to go through but you do have the Zepp's of the world who show up and are essentially an A player from the get go. Good luck to everyone. Shuffle up and deal...scratch that. Drop the puck. EDIT: After my tutorial from Smozoma ive updated the odds Edited October 19, 2015 by wallywojo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted October 16, 2015 Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 American Odds confuse me, but doens't +150 correspond to 40%? 100/(100+150). The last place guy has a 40% chance to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wallywojo Posted October 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 you might be right, from my understanding was that -x means i have to wager x to win 100 and +x means i have to wager 100 to win X. So my understanding is more simplistic. I guess i have some homework to do before my next odds thread :| Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted October 16, 2015 Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 The negatives confuse me (for converting to odds), but with the +s, it's actually quite simple. +100 means 100/(100+100) = 1/2. 50% chance. +400 means 100/(100+400) = 1/5 = 20% chance. So what you do is come up with your percentages, inflate them a little so as the 'house' you make money, then work backwards. Like if you think mav has a 1/3 chance of winning, then convert that to 100/300 --> 100/(100+200), then you would give him +200 odds, but you want to make a little money, so you make it +180 or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingraph Posted October 16, 2015 Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 The negative values are just meant to confuse people into betting more. -130 is the same as +77. Bet $130, and you'll win $100. Bet $100, you'll win $77. Anyway, the odds are too low for me to put a bet! If you really think all 11 people are nearly likely to win, the odds should be closer to +1000 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darko99 Posted October 16, 2015 Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 Nicely done Wally!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mav Posted October 17, 2015 Report Share Posted October 17, 2015 you should change the favorite to Matt wally and you shouldnt give me that much credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HABS Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 Note down the team they are using! But I'll take Matt Hurray at +460, long time A lger who plays a gritty game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kylewat Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 The negative values are just meant to confuse people into betting more. -130 is the same as +77. Bet $130, and you'll win $100. Bet $100, you'll win $77. Anyway, the odds are too low for me to put a bet! If you really think all 11 people are nearly likely to win, the odds should be closer to +1000 or so. Interesting point. Counterpoint is with moneyline win loss bets, it is easy to see the spread when it is listed, +300/-350 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceStorm70 Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 Legendof94 is a vet from back in 07 when myself sebe and jrod joined. We were all pretty even Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wallywojo Posted November 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2015 Actual finish vs. Predicted finish 1. Wally 1. mav(annatar takeover) 2. Matt Hurray 2. me 3. jer 3. darko 4. annatar 4. matt 5. witt 5. witt 6. mikey 6. jer 7. pearate 7. pearate 8. coach 8. coach 9. mikey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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