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Depch

Fall 2016 Gens "A" Kingraph vs Depch (NY Rangers - Dallas) - Round 2

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I put up the series against Kingraph online as well. These are important ones if you want to learn and pick up on the tendencies of your opponent and learn some things. Knowing your opponents tendencies as of recent could be crucifial in an even series, some games you can turn ta 1-2 goals to your advantage with them, even though the most reactionary players just can go with the flow. This is something that I should pick up nowadays and study more if I want to become more effective in playoffs, someone like Swos was/is a master at that.

The background against this was that league wins were 2-0 for Kingraph in regular season between us and we had 5 exis or so in the early season as well where I think I won 0. So games vs NYR were 7-0 before the series so I knew I was fighting an uphill battle. Historically classic league games were to my advantage 8-4 so I wanted to believe in my chances in this series as well. Result however was a quick 0-4 defeat to make it a total of 0-11 in advantage of NYR between us. The games were played in a good manner and with respect to your opponent, but I cannot hide from the results leaving a bad taste to my mouth. In simple It however was a series where the better defence and a more alert player won. NYR really suited Kingraph this season and I was struggling all the way. Here are the games and I will be adding a summary of each game from Dallas POV, critique and my thought process in it, will also be counting on some occurances that you might not usually pay attention to.

Here are the .krec files for those who want to view it in Gens.

r2-Nyr-Dallas.zip





Game 1:

Kingraph comes off strong in the start. Esa parks to the open side of the net in the start of the game and it's an easy onetimer you can't miss. This was something that could have been avoided by reading the play and just being observant and taking it with manual goalie, clearly I was not alert enough. I also could have just been a bit more passive in taking the lanes, but I am used to playing a passive-aggressive play on defence, where you try to keep the lane and force your opponent to lose some space, it is a very reactionary type of defence so fit better for low latency. I might have to put thought to more passive defence ala Zalex & Swos in NA games. Passive-passive requires a lot of patience taking the lanes and you need to be really alert reading the plays to take the goalie fast for shots and unsuspected onetimers. A few quick goals follow with great effectiviness from Kingraph to take a devastating 3-0 lead for Rangers in the beginning, looked like momentum took a swing after the quick start. The second goal was propably my fault with undecisive manual goalie effort and leaving it to AI, which left the short side open, but Kingraph has many tools and can read the play well, so it could've been a backhand pass shot for open side then, but it might be better to just choose to go either and not between, unless you got Roy/Belfour. Third goal my only chance to stop the goal at that situation would propably have been a more aggressive take with the goalie and dive in. After this the game for my fortunate takes a change of course, but giving out 3-0 early is still way too much, this happened way too often this season, giving strong starts to the opponent.

I got a couple of onetimer chances where Courtnall did not finish them up in the next couple of minutes. 3 If we count the one where he went just by the net. He has a shot of 4/3, which is not horrible, but missing so badly indicates either being cold or momentum on full swing to the opponent. It propably is the latter due to the fast 3 goals. Accuracy also is more important from side of the net than onetimers from the middle from my experience. Still however those are situations that you usually score upon with 4/3.

At 1:25 to go in first I'm counting succesfull manual goalie plays to Kingraph 2/2 and high scoring chances 0/3 for me vs Kingraph 3/3. They do involve skill, especially the manual goalie side and alert level, but also can indicate something skewy. At 0:55 there is a first fumbled pass from NYR, which might indicate that momentum swing is starting to turn, it was a short range pass where these do tend to happen more often, the other ones are connecting long passes. At 0:34 I get my first with a onetimer where Courtnall got to use his speed after changing the sides close the blueline and making the opponent D move.

At 0:27 left in frist you can make an indication that momentum is with Dallas now as Gartner has a very poor accuracy with 5/3 from the slot. Those are goals that you usually score with 4/4 and I do have a theory regarding shotpower / accuracy ratio involving. I think this happens when you don't have the momentum, so it's either with Dallas or fairly even, but those usually go in when the hockey gods smile upon your game. Another indicator of momentum swing is the fumbled pass I count when Gartner was to pass a onetimer to Messier most likely, but it went to Patrick. I had one of these to come in the series for myself later on as well.


Second period. I get a pretty lucky goal here to the start of the second period, but if you look closer how it went, I tried to make a onetimer to Modano, who was already shooting the puck, but here comes Courtnall and takes the puck instead. I count this as a fumbled pass. The speed however was enough to fool the goalie somehow and it went in. I would've rather taken the onetimer by Modano, but it worked out this way as well. Game is 2-3 for Rangers.

Couple of missed high scoring chances for each fairly soon. Breakaway by Gartner and a onetimer that Broten tends to get in usually. Looks like momentum is not on either side of these. The great way to check these afterwards are the .krec files, because you can take control from the play and go to the menu and see crowd for example. If crowd is low, momentum might be going in for the away team and high for home etc. At least that would be what I suspect. This reminds me to add the .krec files to the first post.

High scoring chance to follow for Rangers soon enough, but looks like leaving the goalie to AI on some occasions is better than taking my own initiative. Couple of fumbled passes by Sjodin right after that as well. Actually make it 3 in a row for Sjodin. I did not use him much during regular season so it was pretty much spontaneous to bring him in to the lineup, but the thought process was as Messier & Tikk are heavy on the wings he could be more worthwhile than Tinordi that I liked to use at defensive awareness 4. Tinordi could only check Gartner, who then again was the highest scoring threat. Maybe it was a mistake, but that is all speculation now. Might've needed to do a few exis with Dallas the day before the games to test lineups as I was an underdog to begin with.

At 2:10 to go I got fairly lucky as Broten _rushes_ in to intercept a onetimer pass to Gartner. This was the thing why I wanted to use Broten instead of Gagner, even though Gagner provided me with more ppg in regular season. Defensive awareness is the ability to intercept passes and how quick you are to react to the play without your team having the puck. Clearly momentum was not against me here as the AI made the play. Following this a NYR D rushes in to check a player without the puck that was going to receive a pass. This type of aggression is rare and that was Leetch! Awarenesses 4/4 and checking, roughing & agre at 2/2/2. The puck then falls to Patrick, but Broten was in a good position and I got to play aggressive on the forecheck to get the puck for Modano and connect that to Courtnall for onetimer that he did not miss this time. Had Leetch not gone for the aggression this goal propably would not have happened, but I think more often than not, such aggression is for your benefit when it is succesfull.

Another fast sequence after the faceoff. Broten plays as AI real well and holds Patrick to get the puck. It does look like momentum is taking a swing for me here. Courtnall gets to a breakaway and on slow mo you can see the short side being open, but he misses so it's definately not on full swing but more like Broten playing his own game. He gets to shine at 0:37 to go at the 2nd again when Esa tries to pass to Gartner and is on a good position. I have the control there to take the pass so I cannot count it in AI pass intercept, but it is very likely it would've happened regardless. Broten showing his shiftyness & defensive awareness.

One more high danger scoring chance for me, but Kingraph reacts very well with his GC and blocks Modano before he can do much. Kingraph stands currently 4/4 on high scoring chance threats with his manual goalie, this seems to be a difference maker this game.

Beginning of the third period during a delayed penalty coming for me, Sjodin intercepts a pass in his own way as AI to prevent a high scoring area chance from NYR. During PK I get a high scoring area chance yet again and this time Gagner misses an open net with his 3/4 shot. Accuracy 4 is usually sufficient to get those in, either momentum has swung against me or Gagner is cold as well, that does not happen in a balanced environment. Following the situation Courtnall is being checked by AI but bounces off and thus Kingraph GC control kinda makes room for the goal. If Courtnall was not hit by the AI he propably would've had the speed to end right where the GC was. This was a lucky goal after getting unlucky. I'm leading 4-3 and I'm feeling quite confident and my gameplan was to try to hold on to my home games and maybe try one upset on the road, but obviously you try to win all games.

Gartner soon to miss a onetimer from pass by Leetch, the angle was a bit akward, but you rarely miss them. Having the game going your way fully this propably is a goal, but it was a bit farther away so I'm not counting it as a high danger scoring chance. It's a fumbled pass.

Courtnall rushes in to intercept a goalie pass and this indicates with the previous situation that momentum is under my control and I'm leading the game 3minutes to go. This should be situation you do not let slip, I should play more safe in the future in these situations. This results in a breakaway but my cautious style leaving the goalie in the middle area succeeds with a save. I took control of Sjodin a second before Tik could connect a pass to Gartner for an intercept, but that is only soon to be retaliated by Tikkanen intercepting Sjodin a pass from pretty far away as well.

I miss a hold on 2:03 left on Gartner and that leads to a goal as Gartner dekes Sjodin. Sjodin has a defensive awareness of 3 so he can't strip the puck due the deke move, this leaves an open net to Tikkanen who does not miss the net with his 4/2 shot. Note to self is that I propably should have played it passive with Sjodin instead of trying to move to Gartner, especially with the latency in between. My GC move comes a fraction of a second too late to stop the onetimer, but another failure.

The last 2 minutes I'm in a position I would not want to be, the game is tied 4-4 and the opponent has scored the last goal. Broten fights off well from the faceoff though and makes an AI check for puck possession, but the puck still ends up for NYR. Broten makes an AI interception for a pass, but I don't react fast enough to pass the puck for Modano so Mess gets the possession, but this time as Sjodin is against Messier a normal c-check gets me the possession, which only leads to a high scoring chance from Patrick stripping the puck in the middle zone. Now something strange happens after this, I try to pass to Modano, but instead Sjodin reacts like he has no one above him and acts like a pass dump giving the possession for Rangers. I count this as a fumbled pass. Sjodin makes another play here where he tried to go super aggressive check on Gartner, but Gartner does not even react. The puck goes to Messier and I have Modano on position for defence, but make an aggressive check attempt that I miss, leaving Mess for a high scoring area chance and he connects it to Tikkanen for 5-4 game winning goal. Tikkanen doesn't miss with his 4/2 shot.

At around 20 seconds to go I decide to go for a rebound chance as I have a guy on the goal and I get a fruity rebound, but Courtnall starts to rush off from the puck. And this was my last chance to try to even the score.


NYR
Fumbled passes: 3
AI Pass intercepts: 1
AI Checks: 5
Bumbed off checks: 1

High danger scoring area chances: 5/10

Manual goalie plays: 4/5

DAL
Fumbled passes: 5
AI Pass intercepts: 8
AI Checks: 7
Bumbed off checks: 2

High danger scoring area chances: 4/12

Manual goalie plays: 1/3

Summary: I was really surprised by the advanced statistics. Especially the AI intercepts as after the series I felt like this was what NYR excelled at. The first game did shake me off a bit and I felt like I propably should have won that. A horrible start at the beginning 0-3 to leading the game 4-3 with 2 minutes to go. I still do question did I do the right move with Johnson-Sjodin pairing, but the game was very even so it did not cost much at least. I had more high danger scoring chances, but Kingraph excelled making the right moves with his manual goalie. He had the better defensive plays and that got him the win. If I recall right, this was propably the only game where I had the ability to use the speed of the team Dallas had, after this NYR D was pretty much on place all the time, but we'll see if I remember them completely wrong. Having Broten in the lineup was the right move in this game as he clearly saved me from a lot of trouble. Defensive awareness combined with agile skating at work there.

Game 2:



NYR
Fumbled passes:
AI Pass intercepts:
AI Checks:
Bumbed off checks:

High danger scoring area chances:

Manual goalie plays:

DAL
Fumbled passes:
AI Pass intercepts:
AI Checks:
Bumbed off checks:

High danger scoring area chances:

Manual goalie plays:



Game 3:



NYR
Fumbled passes:
AI Pass intercepts:
AI Checks:
Bumbed off checks:

High danger scoring area chances:

Manual goalie plays:

DAL
Fumbled passes:
AI Pass intercepts:
AI Checks:
Bumbed off checks:

High danger scoring area chances:

Manual goalie plays:



Game 4:

There was a glimpse of hope going in to this game when I took in Tinordi instead of Sjodin and took out Gartner very early in the game. I was almost sure to win this game due it. Little did the hockey gods agree to that and this game became an uphill battle with my penalties in it. In total I got to play my 5-man lineup under 1 period in the whole game, that's less than 33%.


NYR
Fumbled passes:
AI Pass intercepts:
AI Checks:
Bumbed off checks:

High danger scoring area chances:

Manual goalie plays:

DAL
Fumbled passes:
AI Pass intercepts:
AI Checks:
Bumbed off checks:

High danger scoring area chances:

Manual goalie plays:






Explanation of extra stats:

Fumbled passes: When your puck bounces off from your skates or your onetimer pass is not received well or misses the shot. I think this is an indicator for momentum swing, the more you fumble, the more uphill fight you are playing.

AI Pass intercepts: Where AI rushes off the bushes to intercept a pass lane succesfully. Also how easy it is to get passes through the defense and the intercepts on still AI players. It is a great indicator of momentum as well, if your D is not running around on open, but holds a steady pace it's a great indication that you have the momentum on your side.

AI Checks: Succesfull AI checks. This does tend to favour heavier teams like the Rangers, but it does also show off AI agression, which on down low plays a huge benefit. Some of it is explained by player skills like checking etc.

Bumbed off checks: Checks where the opponent made the hit, but the player just did not react to that or bumbed off. I do not count checks here where there are not enough weight difference to make it work.

High danger scoring area chances: I'm counting the high danger area scoring chances and how effective the team was with them. Counting missed onetimers here as well. Accuracy plays a part, but especially when the momentum is not on your side.

Succesfull manual goalie plays: This is purely to take notes to myself. To compare the effectiviness of our manual goalie plays involving scoring chances in this series and how much effect did it have. My tendency to play manual goalie is often very cautious. I take the position of the goalie and might switch back to AI for it to make the save, but this sometimes leaves openings if you do it too soon. I felt like this was a crucial difference in the series and I count this towards defensive plays.

Edited by Depch

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Thanks for posting this Depch, and I really find your extra stats idea interesting/exciting. There are two things I notice regarding AI momentum behavior. One is how quickly the AI gets a loose puck. So if I check you, and your other AI immediately gets the puck or is in great position, I find that is one indicator. Conversely, I find when the momentum is against you, a puck can be sitting right in front of your player, and he will skate away, etc....or make it VERY difficult to turn around to get the puck. When it's going for you, you regain possession so quick, it feels fluid.

Having said that, there are tricks to make that happen. One is to take your LW to the RW (or vice versa) side when carrying, because your actual RW should be right behind you if you get checked. If you're lucky, your D-man is a 2nd backup. But, overall, you'll immediately notice the strong momentum against you when for the life of you you can't seem to get the puck, or you feel as if you're pulling your players through mud to get there.

The other AI momentum indicator that drives me crazy is your own players blocking/slowing down your rush. Again, assuming you're in the correct position (not running into your LW on the LW), you'll get more traffic from your own players when that momentum is against you.

Thanks again for taking the time and effort in doing this analysis, it's something new we've never seen!

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Thanks for doing these Depch!

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Game 1:

This was something that could have been avoided by reading the play and just being observant and taking it with manual goalie, clearly I was not alert enough.

...so it could've been a backhand pass shot for open side then, but it might be better to just choose to go either and not between, unless you got Roy/Belfour.

IMO - on goal 1, I don't think you could've reacted quick enough on GC to stop that, but I could be wrong.

goal 2, agree, sometimes you gotta pick a side and take the 50/50

I did get lucky right after those 3, your next two scoring chances were missed goals/posts before you finally pocketed one in there.

End of 1st period -- I wonder if my pass went to Messier (as intended) instead of my Patrick, if I had enough time to sink another goal.

Lots of pucks getting tipped in 2nd, into 3rd...Gartner can't hold onto it!

Another missed open net (3rd or 4th for Dallas), but then I let in an over-aggressive GC goal to go down 4-3 in the 3rd.

My last two goals, nearly identical, one-timers to Tikk. GG.

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One is how quickly the AI gets a loose puck.

As I'm watching this, here is a perfect example. End of 3rd period of Game 2, NYR definitely have momentum going. Pucks are going in, Dallas can't connect on a pass. Now, when there is 1:15 left, Gartner gets checked and immediately in comes Tikkanen (my RW), to stop, backtrack, get the puck for a great outlet pass. When the AI is chasing pucks like that, I feel the momentum is in my favor. As I'm watching, I'll try to find the opposite example (when your AI runs away)...hopefully with TIkkanen, lol.

PQPNuZc.gif

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and immediately in comes Tikkanen (my RW), to stop, backtrack, get the puck for a great outlet pass. When the AI is chasing pucks like that, I feel the momentum is in my favor.

I think Tikkanen is a great AI player, he has incredibly good stats for being one. He is a 9 weighter, so he checks 7 and down weight guys as AI with ease. He has a 4 defensive awareness, so he's good at intercepting passes, sometimes stealing pucks and most of all reacts sufficiently. He also has a 5 checking, which means that he is very keen on going for checks. I was surprised how little it happened in game 1, but as I view the series onwards I think the adv stats should change a bit. He also has the skating to do that and get to places. Broten was great like that for me in game 1 most of the time.

Summary from first game is in from Dallas POV. It's a wall of text. If anyone really wants to check it out, they should propably have wall of text open while viewing the game, most likely it really doesn't interest anyone that much, most of all it was to my own betterment, just doing it publicly. I've never done anything like this before, but I plan on not losing 4-0 anymore, ever! So hopefully a one time effort is enough to learn from my mistakes enough. :D

So far the key things I've found for myself are

-Be more alert and observant, prepare

-Try a more passive defence for NA game

-When you play manual goalie, stick to your decision + learn to play it with more aggression.

Edited by Depch

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Nice thread, hope I can find the time to read it!

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Players react to loose pucks based on hot/cold and awareness.

It's not momentum, it's the advantages in the game that create these kind of effects.

There are few players with high awareness, but the advantages bump the hot/cold to make players do things like intercept pucks and toddle on checks.

Example... In GDL, Sweeney doesn't react to loose pucks and intercept passes, however he does in Classic (Boston has a high advantage, and there are no advantages in GDL).

Edited by Premium

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To me that does not explain the variances in the game. There seems to be clear behavioral differences within games, but I'm using this thread to find it out for sure and cut the games to pieces, then I can check from the .krec what's the thing going on with crowd then for example would it match the situations. The awarenesses combined to player traits are a big deal in it for sure, but that I think was known for many. To me Dallas was not in any real problems with 0/0 advantage. It felt actually quite ok, at home games you still had an advantage even though a minor one and also in visiting you also were only at a minor disadvantage, but against average / high advantage in general. To me advantages should set at 0/0 if we are to have a minimal effect for them, unless we find what they mean in the code to be specific.

My question is do we know for certain, that advantages are some static boosts for your players for each game or would advantage be something like ability to gain momentum or how strong momentum effect is. I'm wondering if could crowd be an indicator for it in the sense of high crowd db favouring the home team and if it's quiet it's turning against the home team. And what does affect it but goals obviously.

I think McMikey hinted towards the game having a momentum type of effect. There was a discussion earlier in the boards where he hinted to some players might be having a different experience, he pointed towards Plabax and Smoz was wondering about how the game could be perceptive about tendencies that players can experience the game differently as it felt out of this world. Only thing that could explain it to me would be momentum. But it's all speculation untill we get the info what he meant.

Edited by Depch

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