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NHL'94 Sega Genesis Limited Edition 1st Round Serial Numbers


kingraph

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On 6/29/2021 at 3:37 PM, kingraph said:

@Tickenest, perhaps you can help answer this question?  If we assume 12 batches of 29000 copies of A-L, what are the chances/probability that we would find a duplicate serial number at some point if we kept picking one at a time?

 

This is very similar to the Birthday Problem (you'd think it would be hard to find 2 people with the same birthday, but by checking 23 people there's a 50/50 chance of finding a duplicate)

Birthdays are completely independent, but in our case we're not being exact because each time you see a code, it reduces the odds of finding the same number by 1/12 but also increases it by..1/29000? But anyway ignore that...

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/

We have about 180 codes so far, not counting the un-lettered codes.

pairs: 180*179/2=16110 = A

The chance of 2 codes NOT being the same (pretending it's totally independent): 28999/29000 = 0.9999655 = B

Then the chances of getting this many codes without a match is:

B^A = (28999/29000)^16110 = 0.5737

So at this point we have a 57% chance to have NOT seen a match. 43% chance to have seen a match.

At 200 codes, we'll be pretty close to 50/50.

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@smozoma, I was originally thinking of the exact same setup as the birthday problem.  However, is there any difference because there is 12x the volume?  So it's not 28999/29000 but rather 347989/348000?  As I think about it, it's probably the same.  

So assuming your math is right, WE ARE NEARING 50% CHANCE!  

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3 minutes ago, kingraph said:

@smozoma, I was originally thinking of the exact same setup as the birthday problem.  However, is there any difference because there is 12x the volume?  So it's not 28999/29000 but rather 347989/348000?  As I think about it, it's probably the same.  

So assuming your math is right, WE ARE NEARING 50% CHANCE!  

You're right (I was ignoring that on purpose, as though there were an infinite number of sets). That changes B=0.9999655 to 0.9999684. Changes our current odds of "no match" to 60.01% (or 39.99% odds of a match). But I think that's still not exact because each sampled cart reduces the 348000..347999..347998... But 39.99% is closer to the true value than 43% from before!

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Success! So definitely ~348k of these.

I read that Madden (91?) sold 400k. Supposedly NHL94 outsold Madden94. Wish these sales numbers were available somewhere.

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On 7/1/2021 at 3:44 PM, smozoma said:

04195

image.png

I'd be really interested in knowing if these non-lettered carts are the ones with the alternate Devils uniforms (green as secondary colour instead of black). @Gretzky ?

@smozomaJust fired up my cart...the Devils have black as the secondary color on their road jerseys, not green.

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On 7/3/2021 at 4:02 PM, Gretzky said:

@smozomaJust fired up my cart...the Devils have black as the secondary color on their road jerseys, not green.

I might have it backwards!

Is your 'banner' different? It's red and green in the usual ROM we useimage.png

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C02137 - Reading, Massachusetts, United States

image.png

I wonder if we would have found anything interesting by tracking the locations of these things.

Previously listed:

04212 - Massachusetts (Gretzky)
04414 - Fresno, California, United States
A24615 - Calgary, Alberta, Canada
B04224 - @ac3100??
B06347 - London, ON, Canada
B07616 - Ottawa, ON, Canada (smozoma)

B26834 - Landenberg, Pennsylvania, United States
C02137 - Reading, Massachusetts, United States
C23944 - Beaverton, Oregon, United States
F05397 - Fergus, Ontario, Canada
G12624 - Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada
H01987 - Clarks Summit, Pennsylvania, United States
J19857 - Gadsden, Alabama, United States
K20764 - Celina, Ohio, United States
L09129 - Stollings, West Virginia, United States

 

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On 7/4/2021 at 6:18 PM, smozoma said:

I might have it backwards!

Is your 'banner' different? It's red and green in the usual ROM we useimage.png

Those are the colors of the banner that appears on the scoreboard (i.e., pause screen), but the banner that is on the team select / game set-up screen has black at the top instead of green. First time I ever noticed that there is a difference in the two banners!

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  • 2 weeks later...

C00268 - Magnolia, Delaware, United States
H22749 - South Plainfield, New Jersey, United States
K14112 - Red Bud, Illinois, United States
 

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

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12 hours ago, smozoma said:

C00268 - Magnolia, Delaware, United States
H22749 - South Plainfield, New Jersey, United States
K14112 - Red Bud, Illinois, United States
 

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

I would think the allocation would be more relative to "store it was sold at" than region. Plus many of these I would assume to be second hand purchases.

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  • 2 months later...
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A few hard-to-read ones in here...

C10877(???) - Dennison, Minnesota, United States
C14205 - Essex, Maryland, United States
F15540 (15640?) - St. John's, NL, Canada
H16917 - Ucluelet, British Columbia, Canada
H17278(???) - Emmitsburg, Maryland, United States
H22650 - Whitby, Ontario, Canada
J14273 - Salt Lake City, Utah, United States

No good geographical matches by letter in this batch...

image.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.png

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  • 2 months later...
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K06610
E25910
D17091 - Located in: Greensburg, Pennsylvania, United States
A23228 - Located in: Stony Plain, Alberta, Canada
I23639 - Located in: Saint-Marc de figuery, Canada
J08588 - Located in: Digby, Nova Scotia, Canada
K23163 - Located in: Beaverton, Oregon, United States
A10357 - Located in: Bowling Green, Kentucky, United States

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.png

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  • 4 months later...

I am revising my estimate today.  I think there are 26k for each letter, and 5k of the non-lettered.  Why?  Well, we haven't gotten a number past 26k (largest is 25910 and multiple 25k+ for each letter).  When I make this assumption and look at the distribution of only the letter numbers in buckets of 2600 (10 slices), we have a 50/50 split from the first half and second half of numbers (n=338 as of today).  And the distribution between the 10 buckets feels normal.  So until I see something otherwise, I'll go with this.

0420.png

 

I am also dying to have visual proof of two sticker matches.  Right now we have two reported matches, but I don't have the visual screenshots!  These could be errors.

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  • 1 month later...
4 hours ago, Fred_Speed said:

Can anyone tell me more about this serial number? (located in Milan, Italy) Thanks! A10344image.jpg

That's a nice number! But we don't much about them. I used to think the letter would correspond to where the copies were originally sold, but so far we haven't found a consistent pattern.

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7 hours ago, smozoma said:

That's a nice number! But we don't much about them. I used to think the letter would correspond to where the copies were originally sold, but so far we haven't found a consistent pattern.

Wow! So, I read that number A10357 was found in Kentucky, maybe mine comes from there. Who knows how it got to Italy, it would be cool if the prior owner read this post and recognized it :D

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