smozoma Posted June 30, 2021 Report Share Posted June 30, 2021 On 6/29/2021 at 3:37 PM, kingraph said: @Tickenest, perhaps you can help answer this question? If we assume 12 batches of 29000 copies of A-L, what are the chances/probability that we would find a duplicate serial number at some point if we kept picking one at a time? This is very similar to the Birthday Problem (you'd think it would be hard to find 2 people with the same birthday, but by checking 23 people there's a 50/50 chance of finding a duplicate) Birthdays are completely independent, but in our case we're not being exact because each time you see a code, it reduces the odds of finding the same number by 1/12 but also increases it by..1/29000? But anyway ignore that... https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/ We have about 180 codes so far, not counting the un-lettered codes. pairs: 180*179/2=16110 = A The chance of 2 codes NOT being the same (pretending it's totally independent): 28999/29000 = 0.9999655 = B Then the chances of getting this many codes without a match is: B^A = (28999/29000)^16110 = 0.5737 So at this point we have a 57% chance to have NOT seen a match. 43% chance to have seen a match. At 200 codes, we'll be pretty close to 50/50. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingraph Posted June 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2021 @smozoma, I was originally thinking of the exact same setup as the birthday problem. However, is there any difference because there is 12x the volume? So it's not 28999/29000 but rather 347989/348000? As I think about it, it's probably the same. So assuming your math is right, WE ARE NEARING 50% CHANCE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted June 30, 2021 Report Share Posted June 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, kingraph said: @smozoma, I was originally thinking of the exact same setup as the birthday problem. However, is there any difference because there is 12x the volume? So it's not 28999/29000 but rather 347989/348000? As I think about it, it's probably the same. So assuming your math is right, WE ARE NEARING 50% CHANCE! You're right (I was ignoring that on purpose, as though there were an infinite number of sets). That changes B=0.9999655 to 0.9999684. Changes our current odds of "no match" to 60.01% (or 39.99% odds of a match). But I think that's still not exact because each sampled cart reduces the 348000..347999..347998... But 39.99% is closer to the true value than 43% from before! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted July 1, 2021 Report Share Posted July 1, 2021 04195 I'd be really interested in knowing if these non-lettered carts are the ones with the alternate Devils uniforms (green as secondary colour instead of black). @Gretzky ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingraph Posted July 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2021 I don't think we need to do pics of the stickers, but here are the latest two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingraph Posted July 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2021 WE GOT A MATCH! 04414 and J04414 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingraph Posted July 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2021 Possible other match. @smozoma, you have me going back and grabbing screenshots of everything LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Success! So definitely ~348k of these. I read that Madden (91?) sold 400k. Supposedly NHL94 outsold Madden94. Wish these sales numbers were available somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 On 7/1/2021 at 3:44 PM, smozoma said: 04195 I'd be really interested in knowing if these non-lettered carts are the ones with the alternate Devils uniforms (green as secondary colour instead of black). @Gretzky ? @smozomaJust fired up my cart...the Devils have black as the secondary color on their road jerseys, not green. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted July 4, 2021 Report Share Posted July 4, 2021 On 7/3/2021 at 4:02 PM, Gretzky said: @smozomaJust fired up my cart...the Devils have black as the secondary color on their road jerseys, not green. I might have it backwards! Is your 'banner' different? It's red and green in the usual ROM we use Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted July 6, 2021 Report Share Posted July 6, 2021 C02137 - Reading, Massachusetts, United States I wonder if we would have found anything interesting by tracking the locations of these things. Previously listed: 04212 - Massachusetts (Gretzky) 04414 - Fresno, California, United States A24615 - Calgary, Alberta, Canada B04224 - @ac3100??B06347 - London, ON, Canada B07616 - Ottawa, ON, Canada (smozoma) B26834 - Landenberg, Pennsylvania, United States C02137 - Reading, Massachusetts, United States C23944 - Beaverton, Oregon, United StatesF05397 - Fergus, Ontario, Canada G12624 - Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada H01987 - Clarks Summit, Pennsylvania, United States J19857 - Gadsden, Alabama, United States K20764 - Celina, Ohio, United States L09129 - Stollings, West Virginia, United States Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted July 6, 2021 Report Share Posted July 6, 2021 B04224 - @ac3100 would I be correct in guessing you're from Ontario? B06347 - London, ON, Canada (ebay) B07616 - Ottawa, ON, Canada (smozoma) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gretzky Posted July 10, 2021 Report Share Posted July 10, 2021 On 7/4/2021 at 6:18 PM, smozoma said: I might have it backwards! Is your 'banner' different? It's red and green in the usual ROM we use Those are the colors of the banner that appears on the scoreboard (i.e., pause screen), but the banner that is on the team select / game set-up screen has black at the top instead of green. First time I ever noticed that there is a difference in the two banners! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted July 22, 2021 Report Share Posted July 22, 2021 C00268 - Magnolia, Delaware, United States H22749 - South Plainfield, New Jersey, United States K14112 - Red Bud, Illinois, United States Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaos Posted July 23, 2021 Report Share Posted July 23, 2021 12 hours ago, smozoma said: C00268 - Magnolia, Delaware, United States H22749 - South Plainfield, New Jersey, United States K14112 - Red Bud, Illinois, United States I would think the allocation would be more relative to "store it was sold at" than region. Plus many of these I would assume to be second hand purchases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted September 30, 2021 Report Share Posted September 30, 2021 i05971 - Montreal, QC, Canada C25666 - Quebec, QC, Canada (or are some of those 6s actually 8s?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSgamby Posted October 1, 2021 Report Share Posted October 1, 2021 L02347 -Thunder Bay, ON, Canada 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 L17207 - Neche, North Dakota, United States K20764 - Celina, Ohio, United States (already in list, but adding location) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 L26063 - from a reddit post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 00990 (already on the list) for anyone who wants to see it! https://twitter.com/nhl94dotcom/status/1490509130955698182 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lid2lid2 Posted February 18, 2022 Report Share Posted February 18, 2022 Hi y’all- found a cool one today here in San Antonio. With the playing cards and manual. Enjoying jumping down the rabbit hole on this topic! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted March 11, 2022 Report Share Posted March 11, 2022 A few hard-to-read ones in here... C10877(???) - Dennison, Minnesota, United States C14205 - Essex, Maryland, United States F15540 (15640?) - St. John's, NL, Canada H16917 - Ucluelet, British Columbia, Canada H17278(???) - Emmitsburg, Maryland, United States H22650 - Whitby, Ontario, Canada J14273 - Salt Lake City, Utah, United States No good geographical matches by letter in this batch... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhotonR4bb1t Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) Bought yesterday. Claremont, NH. https://www.pricecharting.com/offer/or5shso5f6vsa76hpkxqonuxwa Edited May 20, 2022 by PhotonR4bb1t 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerkjerry47 Posted July 25, 2022 Report Share Posted July 25, 2022 (edited) interesting information Edited July 25, 2022 by jerkjerry47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindogu Posted September 3, 2022 Report Share Posted September 3, 2022 This is a curious thing. Here's mine. I bought it 2nd hand off the Internet, so I'm not sure where it's from originally. E20461 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 K06610 E25910 D17091 - Located in: Greensburg, Pennsylvania, United States A23228 - Located in: Stony Plain, Alberta, Canada I23639 - Located in: Saint-Marc de figuery, Canada J08588 - Located in: Digby, Nova Scotia, Canada K23163 - Located in: Beaverton, Oregon, United States A10357 - Located in: Bowling Green, Kentucky, United States Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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