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NHL'94 Sega Genesis Limited Edition 1st Round Serial Numbers


kingraph
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On 6/29/2021 at 3:37 PM, kingraph said:

@Tickenest, perhaps you can help answer this question?  If we assume 12 batches of 29000 copies of A-L, what are the chances/probability that we would find a duplicate serial number at some point if we kept picking one at a time?

 

This is very similar to the Birthday Problem (you'd think it would be hard to find 2 people with the same birthday, but by checking 23 people there's a 50/50 chance of finding a duplicate)

Birthdays are completely independent, but in our case we're not being exact because each time you see a code, it reduces the odds of finding the same number by 1/12 but also increases it by..1/29000? But anyway ignore that...

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/

We have about 180 codes so far, not counting the un-lettered codes.

pairs: 180*179/2=16110 = A

The chance of 2 codes NOT being the same (pretending it's totally independent): 28999/29000 = 0.9999655 = B

Then the chances of getting this many codes without a match is:

B^A = (28999/29000)^16110 = 0.5737

So at this point we have a 57% chance to have NOT seen a match. 43% chance to have seen a match.

At 200 codes, we'll be pretty close to 50/50.

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@smozoma, I was originally thinking of the exact same setup as the birthday problem.  However, is there any difference because there is 12x the volume?  So it's not 28999/29000 but rather 347989/348000?  As I think about it, it's probably the same.  

So assuming your math is right, WE ARE NEARING 50% CHANCE!  

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3 minutes ago, kingraph said:

@smozoma, I was originally thinking of the exact same setup as the birthday problem.  However, is there any difference because there is 12x the volume?  So it's not 28999/29000 but rather 347989/348000?  As I think about it, it's probably the same.  

So assuming your math is right, WE ARE NEARING 50% CHANCE!  

You're right (I was ignoring that on purpose, as though there were an infinite number of sets). That changes B=0.9999655 to 0.9999684. Changes our current odds of "no match" to 60.01% (or 39.99% odds of a match). But I think that's still not exact because each sampled cart reduces the 348000..347999..347998... But 39.99% is closer to the true value than 43% from before!

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04195

image.png

I'd be really interested in knowing if these non-lettered carts are the ones with the alternate Devils uniforms (green as secondary colour instead of black). @Gretzky ?

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Success! So definitely ~348k of these.

I read that Madden (91?) sold 400k. Supposedly NHL94 outsold Madden94. Wish these sales numbers were available somewhere.

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On 7/1/2021 at 3:44 PM, smozoma said:

04195

image.png

I'd be really interested in knowing if these non-lettered carts are the ones with the alternate Devils uniforms (green as secondary colour instead of black). @Gretzky ?

@smozomaJust fired up my cart...the Devils have black as the secondary color on their road jerseys, not green.

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On 7/3/2021 at 4:02 PM, Gretzky said:

@smozomaJust fired up my cart...the Devils have black as the secondary color on their road jerseys, not green.

I might have it backwards!

Is your 'banner' different? It's red and green in the usual ROM we useimage.png

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C02137 - Reading, Massachusetts, United States

image.png

I wonder if we would have found anything interesting by tracking the locations of these things.

Previously listed:

04212 - Massachusetts (Gretzky)
04414 - Fresno, California, United States
A24615 - Calgary, Alberta, Canada
B04224 - @ac3100??
B06347 - London, ON, Canada
B07616 - Ottawa, ON, Canada (smozoma)

B26834 - Landenberg, Pennsylvania, United States
C02137 - Reading, Massachusetts, United States
C23944 - Beaverton, Oregon, United States
F05397 - Fergus, Ontario, Canada
G12624 - Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada
H01987 - Clarks Summit, Pennsylvania, United States
J19857 - Gadsden, Alabama, United States
K20764 - Celina, Ohio, United States
L09129 - Stollings, West Virginia, United States

 

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On 7/4/2021 at 6:18 PM, smozoma said:

I might have it backwards!

Is your 'banner' different? It's red and green in the usual ROM we useimage.png

Those are the colors of the banner that appears on the scoreboard (i.e., pause screen), but the banner that is on the team select / game set-up screen has black at the top instead of green. First time I ever noticed that there is a difference in the two banners!

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  • 2 weeks later...

C00268 - Magnolia, Delaware, United States
H22749 - South Plainfield, New Jersey, United States
K14112 - Red Bud, Illinois, United States
 

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

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12 hours ago, smozoma said:

C00268 - Magnolia, Delaware, United States
H22749 - South Plainfield, New Jersey, United States
K14112 - Red Bud, Illinois, United States
 

 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

I would think the allocation would be more relative to "store it was sold at" than region. Plus many of these I would assume to be second hand purchases.

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