Classic'20 GENS "A" Vegas Odds


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Summer'20 GENS "A" Vegas Odds
 
1. AngryJay93 (STL) - 3000
8. PistolPete42 (VAN) +3000

Season Series (1-1)

@angryjay93 is one of the all-time great ‘94 players ever.  Multiple league titles over multiple years, multiple live event championships in BOTH Sega and SNES.  He literally wrote the book on lineup options on teams that everyone references.  And he just went 34-6 in the regular season, which just so happens to be the best 40 game record in Classic A Genesis EVER (or at least 12 years).  Only two other times did someone go 33-7, and one of those was AngryJay93 (the other one was HABS).  And he did it this season with St. Louis, in a league with some good veteran competition.  It’s possible that AJ is playing his best ‘94 ever, which is scary for everyone else. 

Now here’s the intriguing part.  @pistolpete42 was one of those 6 wins vs AJ!  In his first Classic season, PistolPete managed to make the playoffs in the “A” league, which is a great showing for a newcomer.  PistolPete proves that he can play ‘94, and will continue to get better as he plays tougher competition.  And Vancouver matches up really well against St. Louis.  All that speed and lightweight forwards will keep Hull off his feet, but I suspect AJ will find ways to counter that advantage.  While PistolPete can steal a game, it’s just too much to beat AJ in a 7 game series. 

PREDICTION: STL in 4
 
2. Kingraph (LA) - 700
7. Zeppelin55 (WPG) + 700

 
Season Series (4-0 LA)

kingraph took the LA Kings to a 31-9 regular season finish, earning him the #2 spot.  One of 3 coaches who finished with over 2 on the goal differential, kingraph did it with the fantastic offense that LA has, finishing first in goals for in the league.  On the flip side, Hrudey was 7th in goalie save % (of starters) and the Kings were 4th in GA/G.  Raph will have to rely on his manual goalie and shot-preventing defense to make this team work for a chance at the cup. 

Zeppelin55, aka @kylewat, is always a tough competitor and frequently challenges all the top players in the leagues he joins.  He favors the WInnipeg Jets, as he can use Phil Housley as an offensive weapon better than most other people.  Zeppelin and kingraph met in Classic 2016 that resulted in a 7 game series!  kingraph squeaked out a victory needing a 3rd period rally.  The evidence is there that this series can go 7 games again and perhaps Winnipeg can pull the upset.    
 
PREDICTION: LA in 6
 
3. Uncle Set (QUE) - 1500
6. Scribe99 (TOR) + 1500

 
Season Series (3-1 QUE)

@Uncle Seth came out of "retirement" to remind people that he’s one of the best players ever to pick up the Genesis controller.  He took Quebec to a league leading Goal Differential of 2.56, consisting of a GF/G average of 5.51 and a stifling defense of 2.95 GA/G.  Ron Hextall led all goalies with a .712 save %, showing that Seth is one of the best at manual goalie.  Seth has always been at the doorstep of the cup.  In his 2016 Classic, he had a 3-1 series lead over AJ before losing in 7.  In the season before he also lost to AJ in 5 games in the finals.  He lost to Plabax twice in the finals in Plablegs 01 and GDL16.  I think the time off has given Uncle Seth a renewed hunger to make a deep playoff run and finally pick up one of those elusive titles.

@Scribe99 is also continuing his '94 resurgence, coming back to the online scene after being away for a while.  A veteran of the game who continues to practice, explore and share information, he took the Toronto Maple Leafs to the 6th seed with an impressive 24-16 record.  His GA/G is stellar at 3.06 (3rd in the league), with Potvin posting a.710 save percentage!  Clearly defense isn’t a problem for Scribe.  On the offensive end,  Scribe's GF/G is on the lower end of the league at only 3.34. That’s not going to cut it against Seth’s tight Quebec defense. So unless Scribe can find some more ways to bury the puck, it’s not going to be a pretty picture when they drop the puck in Quebec.

 
PREDICTION: QUE in 5
 
4. Schmidt (MTL) - 110
5. Corbettkb (DET) - 110

 
Season Series (2-2 TIE)

This 4/5 series has all the makings of an epic battle.  Both @JSchmidt and @corbettkb have nearly identical GDif (1.50 and 1.46 respectively), and are reflective of the teams they are using.  Corbett has the higher GF/G with Detroit’s explosive forwards, while Schmidt has the better GA/G with Patrick Roy in the pipes.  Steve Yzerman led the league in points per game at 3.43, while teammates Dino Ciccarelli finished at 2.50 and Federov at 1.73.  Montreal is a little more balanced, as expected, with Muller, Savard and Damphousse at 2.90, 2.45 and 2.41.  Having played both of these coaches a lot over the last year, I feel they both have the ability to win the entire cup when they stay focused.  And that’s going to be key here - the ability to stay focused in a 7 game series is a mental battle with yourself sometimes.  Both of these coaches have a tendency of getting a little too loose too early if they fall behind which can lead to costly mistakes.  However, when playing tight, they are as good as anyone. I have this at a coin flip (I make my $10 house cut!) and see this going to a game 7.  The only thing I like better is Detroit’s firepower, but at the same time Montreal has the home ice advantage in a potential game 07! YIKES, this looks to be a good one.  

PREDICTION: DET in 7 (OT)

ODDS TO WIN THE CUP (based on projected playoff path)

The likely path based on my odds for Zeppelin/Scribe to win the cup would mean to beat kingraph, Uncle Seth, & AngryJay93 in 7 game series'.  That would be one of the hardest runs ever!  If PistolPete gets past AJ, he’d face Corbettkb, and then likely kingraph/UncleSeth in a finals.  No small feat for our lower seeds for sure!

AngryJay93 (STL) +350
kingraph (LA) +350
Uncle Seth (QUE) + 500
Corbettkb (DET) + 1250
Schmidt (MTL) +1300
Zeppelin (WPG) + 3000
Scribe (TOR) +3000
PistolPete (VAN) +5000

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If I can get through the 1st series my odds would still be probably 15:1 given a roughly 1:4 chance against the opposing teams which seems about right in my head. So I would never bet myself at +3000.

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A minor note but Seth topped me 3-1 in our regular season series instead of 4-0.  Love the writeup - thanks for all you do Kingraph! 

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4 minutes ago, Scribe99 said:

A minor note but Seth topped me 3-1 in our regular season series instead of 4-0.  Love the writeup - thanks for all you do Kingraph! 

That is not minor!  I misread and will update my post and likely odds.  House will still honor all bets made before this information was known!

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Woah, hold the presses! I had two 33-7 seasons. One in 2010 (DAL) and another in 2015 (LA) and now 2020 (STL)

Something about round numbers and western conference teams it seems. Look out in 2025 when I get WPG rolling.

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1 hour ago, angryjay93 said:

Woah, hold the presses! I had two 33-7 seasons. One in 2010 (DAL) and another in 2015 (LA) and now 2020 (STL)

Something about round numbers and western conference teams it seems. Look out in 2025 when I get WPG rolling.

Bro, you went 34-6 in 2020!

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Can I take $500 usd on Seth to win outright?

 

Also lol at Raph -700 in his own series. You can tell he wrote the post

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