smozoma Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 (edited) Here's my basic idea for how the draft will work for next season. I don't want to have a full 12 round draft every season, so I'm trying to come up with a system whereby we keep about half our team each season, in a random, but fair, way. I would like some feedback. Basically it'll go like this: Everyone ranks their players from 1-12. A percent is associated with each player indicating the likelihood he will NOT get dropped. Players ranked LOWER (closer to 12th rank, lower percent) are more likely to get DROPPED before the draft. I generate a set of 12 random numbers from 1-100 using random.org Using those random numbers and an algorithm for dropping players, I figure out what players get dropped. (Probably) everyone loses the same ranked players. We hold a draft that has about 7 rounds (might be more, might be less, based on the random numbers!) to refill the players that were lost. The thing I would like to discuss is what the algorithm is. Variations Here are some variations we could choose to have.. A. Everyone has the same percents -vs- People can make up their own percents (with limitations) B. Everyone has the same set of random numbers -vs- People can ask to have their own set (take a gamble) C. We should always have the same number of picks every draft round -vs- It's ok if we end up with draft rounds of different lengths Below I have some examples that will help you make sense of the options above: Examples Algorithm 1 - Constantly Decreasing from a high number 1. Top player, 70% chance to keep. 2. 2nd best player, 65% chance to keep. Each player decreases 5%... 3. 60% 4. 55% 5. 50% 6. 45% ... 11. 20% 12. 15% With this system, you have a 1-in-2 chance of keeping your top player for 3 seasons in a row (70% times 70% is about 50%). The problem with this system is that you are likely to keep 3.45 of your top players, but I'd rather it were closer to 3 of them. Since it's random, there could be boring seasons where everyone keeps 5 players! Also, you'll keep only 1.65 of your bottom 6 on the average, so often you'll be drafting 4-5 sucky players.. and who wants to do that, it's boring. Algorithm 2 - Constantly Decreasing from a low number 1. Top player, 60% chance to keep. 2. 2nd best player, 57% chance to keep. Each player decreases 3%... 3. 54% 4. 51% 5. 48% 6. 45% ... 11. 30% 12. 27% You'll keep about 3.15 of your top 6, and 2.07 of your bottom 6. Basically, i'm trying to make it so we draft fewer bottom-6 players. Algorithm 3 - Curved Decreasing 1. 70% chance to keep 2. 60% (-10) 3. 52% (-8) 4. 46% (-6) 5. 42% (-4) 6. 40% (-2) 7. 38% (-2) 8. 36% (-2) 9. 34% (-2) 10. 32% (-2) 11. 30% (-2) 12. 28% (-2) You're likely to keep 3.1 of your top 6 players, and 1.98 of your bottom 6, so the draft will usually be 7 rounds (3 good players, 4 filler players) Algorithm 4 - Choose your own curve In this algorithm, you make your own percents, with a few stipulations: 1. your top 6 percents can't add to more than 300% (this means you keep 3 of your top 6 players -- your average % will be 50%) 2. you can't use any percents higher than 70% 3. your bottom 6 can't add to more than 200% (keep 2 players.. avg 33%) 4. you can't use any percents lower than 20% 5. all your top 6 percents must be greater-than-or-equal-to all of your bottom 6 percents In this setup, since not everyone shares the same percents, the draft will have to accommodate people having different number of draft picks. If you lost your top player, you'd get a 1st round pick, 2nd player = 2nd round pick, etc. This could make the draft really confusing for some people. There could even be rounds where only one person has a pick. Note that I would have to take a more in-depth look at the rules to make sure they work well, if we choose this one. Also, I am thinking of allowing people to ask to have a separate set of random numbers generated for them. This allows them to decide to gamble on whether they want to go with the same set of numbers as everyone else, or have their own set (that might be better or worse for them). However, this would also create a situation where people lost players of different ranks, so we'd have rounds where some people had picks and others didn't. I think I would make a rule that if the random numbers let someone keep 5 or 6 of their top 6, I would re-generate the numbers, so the teams have variation. Edited January 11, 2009 by smozoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaftman Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 wow so many ideas. tough to choose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzgerism Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I understand the idea that you have to risk/lose your best players, but I don't think we should have a guessing game going. In all honesty, some coaches' top players aren't going to be anything the same, and sometimes work best in concert with the other player that we want to keep. It'd be nice if we just did it like the first draft, but with a little more variance maybe? * No player is "protected." Round 1 - Keep one player on your current roster. Round 2/3 - Snaking draft Rounds 4/5 - Keep two players. Rounds 6/7 - Snaking draft Rounds 8/9 - Keep two players. Rounds 10/11/12 - Free Agency? Compensatory picks (for new coaches): At the end of Rounds 1, 5, and 9, and the beginning of Rounds 4 and 6, new coaches will add another drafted player to their roster in order to make up for the returning coaches' keeper picks. We could also have the first two rounds be drafted, but I know that people will be upset about that. Maybe next season we could do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rweinmeyer Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 i like metz idea...more fair...and mainly cause i didnt even draft my team in the first place and dont really like it. it would be nice to see a some difference in teams for the new season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 If we alternate keeping and drafting, I worry that people will keep messing up. I think people will often draft when they should have picked a guy from their team, causing lots of slowdowns. That's why I was trying to get the kept players to be chosen before the draft. Still, I agree that Metz's idea is a better system. However, I would modify it so that which rounds were keepers and which were drafters would be decided randomly, 50% chance for each round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angryjay93 Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I say we just dump the top 6 players on everyones roster, that would really make my day. But in reality, lets just do the Algorithim 3 with the curve thing, it gets the most desired result, and its simple, no need to kill ourselves here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokkeefan Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 wow too much thought going on there man...id say just throw them all back and draft 8 rds and then free agency ...simple and fair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I say we just dump the top 6 players on everyones roster, that would really make my day. wow too much thought going on there man...id say just throw them all back and draft 8 rds and then free agency ...simple and fair I don't want Blitz to be a pure draft league, though. Teams should evolve over time, not totally change each season. This approach does suck for new coaches, though, since they're stuck with the remains of some team that doesn't suit them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angryjay93 Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I don't want Blitz to be a pure draft league, though. Teams should evolve over time, not totally change each season.This approach does suck for new coaches, though, since they're stuck with the remains of some team that doesn't suit them... I was just kidding about the first part of my post, i only said that cause no one wants my top 6 and i want everyone elses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokkeefan Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 ok sounds good ...as long as i get to keep my iafrate heheh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokkeefan Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 somebody get something going !!! im jones-ing here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Houlanov Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 metz plan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angryjay93 Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 metz plan! Not a big fan of it, the best player on each roster has zero chance of moving. Also having people fill out there rosters with free agents is just a huge mess...anyone remember Krontosgate? Do the algorithim and then have an even draft, its easy, effective, and smooth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Houlanov Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 (edited) quote:angryjay93 Not a big fan of it, the best player on each roster has zero chance of moving. "It's A Dark Day In Our Community" no changes in gld and blitz Edited January 6, 2009 by Houlanov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzgerism Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Hey smoz, I understand and like your modification, but I think it should be a coin flip: it is either what I proposed, or the reverse of it. I think that if we allow it to come down to 50 percent picks, there's a severe chance of weirdness. It's kinda like the 2-2-1-1-1 playoff system vs. the 2-3-2 - you might as well complete everything in a block to save on travel costs. If we were to have a random or semi-random allocation of draft vs. keeper spots, there is a high possibility of draft confusion and/or apathy. Furthermore, I think that we should work with absolute guidelines regarding which numbers are drafts and which are keepers. Half your starting roster, half your injury skaters, and half of your reserves should be subject to turnover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rweinmeyer Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 (edited) how bout we start from scratch...wouldnt mind a chance at a good team...L.A. kinda stinks....dont think it would take that long....list the teams in order....random lottery....keep 3 players...draft for the rest... eh? Edited January 7, 2009 by rweinmeyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted January 7, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 how bout we start from scratch...wouldnt mind a chance at a good team...L.A. kinda stinks....dont think it would take that long....list the teams in order....random lottery....keep 3 players...draft for the rest... eh? I thought your team was pretty good, really tough to play against. I'm kinda set on the idea of teams keeping about 5 players between seasons.. we'll see how it goes this season. Don't forget that your performance in the previous season affects your draft position, so if you do badly one year, you can make up for it the next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokkeefan Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 when is this starting cause im frackin jones-en man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smozoma Posted January 7, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 when is this starting cause im frackin jones-en man Jan 17th weekend it should be starting up (player lists due, draft starting..) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedWingDevil Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 So, have we decided on how we're gonna do the draft? It should be balanced for all players, especially the new ones that are just coming in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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