NHL '94 Draft Lottery Program

[DaDonch44]

Hey Guys, (sorry for the long winded post)

I came up with a way for the draft to be more balanced and to help out the weaker teams.

I made up a program based on the actual NBA Draft Lottery but with a few tweaks.

If you are unfamiliar with the way their lottery works here is a description:

To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1-14 (because there are 14 teams that do not make the playoffs) are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. So although there is a total of 24 orders in which the balls numbered 1-2-3-4 can be picked, they are all treated as the same outcome. In doing this, the permutation of 4 balls from 14 becomes the combination of 4 balls from 14. That is, the total of 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14x13x12x11) possible permutations is reduced by a factor of 24, to 1,001 combinations. Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. (I would leave all combinations in, why waste them?) The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record (in our cases Pts.) and are assigned the following number of chances:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick

2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance

3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance

4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance

5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance

6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance

7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance

8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance

9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance

10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance

11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance

12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance

13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance

14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

(I give the worst team a 50% chance ALWAYS, and the percentages for the rest would be a little different)

The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize prior to having the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10-second intervals. NBA officials determine which team holds the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the one unassigned combination comes up), the round is repeated until a unique winner is determined.

(For our purposes, I would do all the teams not in the playoffs and not stop after 3 teams. This gives all non playoff teams a chance of moving up, and doesn't screw new coaches out of a chance to win a decent drafting position.)

As an example, I have taken the 8 teams that have not made the playoffs and ran a simulation in the program.

The Starting Positions are as follows:

SJ - 15 Pts.

TB - 16 Pts.

QUE - 23 Pts.

EDM - 23 Pts.

WSH - 38 Pts.

PIT - 51 Pts.

ANA - 52 Pts.

DAL - 56 Pts.

and that is how they are listed in the program (worst to best)

when the teams are set each team is assigned an amount of 4 digit number combinations and the % of how many total combinations is displayed.

When the lottery is run, 4 numbers are randomly selected and the team that has that matching combo gets the #1 pick.

When the draft is over all the teams are listed in their draft order.

Also the program will generate 2 webpages (1 for results, and 1 with the combination list so everyone can look at make sure there were no errors/"cheating")

Draft Combinations

Draft Results

For any new coaches, they would be listed after the non playoff teams (to make it fair). So in this example, after Dallas.

Then the remaining draft picks (the playoff teams) would be determined by the order they finished in the playoffs. So the finalists would be 2nd to last and last to pick.

The draft would no longer be a snake draft. It would follow the same order for all 12 rounds.

If you think about it, it would give weaker teams a more even playing field, and make draft choices more critical for more experienced players.

I'm sure this has confused all of you. I have shown this to AngryJay and if any of you have questions, I will try to answer them as best as I can.

If you let me use this for the next season draft great, if not its ok too. But, I wanted to come up with a fair system would take into account new coaches, and be fair to playoff and non-playoff teams.

Any and all opinions, and thoughts are welcome.

[halifax]

dadonch....this is some amazing stuff! I'm not in the GDL but I enjoy following its progress.

This seems to be the best way to try and create parity in the league.

Nice work!

[take_your_pill]

that's pretty badass right there hmm mmm

[IAmFleury'sHipCheck]

Whoa, this is pretty amazing and at the same time, a little too much for me to comprehend at work for the moment. But here's something to consider about the % allocation...

I think we need to look at our league to come up with the %s, break down the records into tiers and assign % based on those tiers. Also, I feel that regardless of record, everyone should have a chance at the first pick.

I don't think there should be a huge disparity of %s (like the 50% for last place) due that if people are close to last as the season winds down, it would be a factor to encourage them to lose or automatically lose by not playing their games. In turn, that would have an effect on our stats. I still want to give the teams towards the bottom the best chance possible but not with that kind of % variance. Does that make sense?

Other considerations:

-How do you accomodate for new players to the league? I think they should have a start with last picks or maybe a low % pick.

-I also think players who did not finish their prior season games should be excluded from the lottery and automatically assigned bottom picks.

With regards to everyone being grouped in tiers [you can refer to GDL recap below]:

(mind you, these are just quick guesses and I know %s will change based upon # teams in GDL lottery)

I. Top 10 teams in prior season should be grouped into one tier and assigned lowest % - 1% chance

II. Teams 11-16 should have a slightly higher % but still low b/c they were playoff teams - 2%

III. Teams 17-22 - 8%

IV. Teams 23-24 - 15%

Team Played Wins

1 CHI 56 50

2 BUF 56 46

3 MTL 56 44

4 STL 56 42

5 DET 56 37

6 NYR 56 34

7 TOR 55 32

8 NYI 56 31

9 L.A 53 31

10 FLA 56 30

11 VAN 56 30

12 N.J 53 30

13 CGY 56 27

14 DAL 56 26

15 BOS 56 26

16 HFD 55 26

17 ANH 56 25

18 OTW 54 24

19 PIT 56 23

20 WSH 52 17

21 EDM 52 10

22 QUE 56 9

23 T.B 56 7

24 S.J 56 5

Don't worry it adds up to 100%.

Donche, let me know your thoughts on the % allocation and the other considerations about noobies and coaches not playing games.. As i mentioned, it's important to not establish wide enough disparities that would encourage coaches to dump games in the GDL for a better lottery pick next season. I guess we need to discuss what would be a good balance.

[dmac]

First of all, I would like to congratulate DaDonch in his marriage and give him a warm welcome back to this wonderful NHL 94 community.

Secondly, I really enjoyed reading your draft lottery, but I also agree with EA about the percentages and chances of getting higher picks. I remember in a different post somebody mentioned that there's not much of a point to let the worst players get the best players in the draft because it wont do them any good. I really don't think there should be too big of a margin between first place and last.

[clockwise]

Had a chance to test this out last night it's great!

Having the ping-pong balls adds a "tonights big 4 power ball lotto" feel and the clock ticking down is adds suspence.

Great work Donch!

[IAmFleury'sHipCheck]

Hey Donche, I don't think it was that clear in my first msg but I just want to say that's an amazing lottery system you put together. I look forward to hearing your feedback on my input.

[DaDonch44]

Hey Donche, I don't think it was that clear in my first msg but I just want to say that's an amazing lottery system you put together. I look forward to hearing your feedback on my input.

No problem EA. Ive just been a little busy this weekend so far.

I agree that 50% is steep for the last place team and I don't want teams to tank at the end in order to receive a better chance.

So, I'm totally cool with changing the percentages to whatever the consensus is; whether its tiers, a gradual decline in % from last to best (lowering it from 50% to 20-30%), or equal opportunity for all. They can easily be changed in a text file linked to the program thats, no problem. That's why I wanted the program to be able to handle a number of teams all the way up to the max of 26, in case equal opportunity was chosen.

I think in my first post I said that any new coaches would be in the draft but be placed at the bottom of the list of non playoff teams. So if the draft had the 8 non playoff teams and say 3 new coaches. It would be an 11 team draft and the new coaches would be placed 9th, 10th, and 11th (Order determined by coin flip or something). They would receive the lowest chance of getting the #1 pick, but they also wouldn't be made to pick last in the entire draft just because they are new. The lowest they would pick would be 11th. Then all the playoff teams would be placed 12 thru whatever (24) in order of finishing in the playoffs.

I just based it off the pros and how they ran things. But since this is only for a video game league, it can obviously be changed.

So I mean, I made the program, but I think it should be up to D since he is the admin, and/or a combination of what everyone else thinks. I just wanted it to be available if the league wanted to use it. But whatever is decided is cool, including not even using this method. I can always hold a nightly lottery with Clockwise, or I sit and play B-I-N-G-O with myself.

Thanks everyone for the support and feedback.

[dmitry]

nice job dadonch,

i think we need to tweak the percentages and maybe a few other things, but we can definitely use this.

[IAmFleury'sHipCheck]

nice job dadonch,

i think we need to tweak the percentages and maybe a few other things, but we can definitely use this.

D, what are your thoughts about what I said about coaches not playing all their scheduled games from the prior season and that having an effect on their draft pick? And by the way, welcome back! It's quite the process to move and get settled in... anyone needs a vacation after that.

Donche, thanks for getting back on that. I look forward to seeing it put into action.

[dmitry]

how about just for the draft we count unplayed games as wins or maybe even wins x 2

its hard to know who to punish when a game goes unplayed.

[DaDonch44]

nice job dadonch,

i think we need to tweak the percentages and maybe a few other things, but we can definitely use this.

Thanks D,

Just let me know how you want to do it and we'll make it happen.

Do you have any idea how you want to change the percentages?

Do you want to include all the teams in the lottery or just non playoff teams and new coaches?

Do you want to make it like EA suggested and create tiers giving everyone a chance to get the 1st pick?

Do you still want to use a snake draft or use the same order for each round?

Sorry for all the questions, just trying to get an idea.

[smozoma]

Do you still want to use a snake draft or use the same order for each round?

What about a hybrid?

1. Snake x rounds, then use the same order (worst-to-best) for the rest of the rounds.

2. Snake x rounds, then use worst-to-best order for 2-3 rounds, then snake the rest..

[Guest Wags13]

What about a hybrid?

1. Snake x rounds, then use the same order (worst-to-best) for the rest of the rounds.

2. Snake x rounds, then use worst-to-best order for 2-3 rounds, then snake the rest..

I like that idea.. smozoma.. take the first two rounds for same order..then snake the next 3.. then use original order for remaining rounds..since there is five starters to a side..