TomKabs93

The BS factor of 94

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TomKabs93    7

As almost everybody knows/believes, in 94 (and in all EA sports nhl games) there exists some form of external influence that can and does have an effect on the outcome of games. Whether its momentum, ice tilt, randomness, nobody really knows for sure. Almost everyone agrees that something along those lines exists and has a big factor on wins and losses, with only the very rare wacklord believing in a truly fair and balanced game at all times.

 

Getting to the point, I was having a discussion with plabax about whether or not you truly have a chance at winning EVERY single game if you played well enough. I believe that while in most games your play has a big influence on the outcome, occasionally there are games where it is actually impossible to win as long as your opponent is semi-competent. This is what im calling the BS factor.

 

He agreed with me that this exists, and i asked him how frequently he thinks it happens. We both agree that this happens far more frequently than 1/100 games.

 

My theory is that most games have SOME level of imbalance in regards to tilt/momentum/whatever, but most of the time it isnt heavily tilted 1 way. Like some games could be relatively 50/50, some 60/40, but every now and then you get an 80/20 or 90/10. Of course in most of those its possible to win if you outplay your opponent enough. 

 

This could explain why game 1 of a playoff series could be a 3-2 win and game 2 a 10-0 blowout loss. Of course theres more to it, but this is just a theory.

 

Anyway, do you guys agree that games of 94 do exist that are relatively impossible to win against a semi competent opponent? If so, how frequently do you think this happens?

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smozoma    100

Even without some kind of momentum affect, you're not going to win every game just because you're a better player than someone. The game has randomness, and in a short game randomness can dominate the results.

You may only win 25% of the faceoffs, which in a high-scoring game can result in a big deficit in possession/chances.

Your guys may miss the net or hit the post on high-percentage shots.

Your guys may pass in a direction that you weren't pressing. Or the CPU may decide to not pass it to Mario Lemieux in the slot but instead pass it to the winger behind him (and not in an awesome 2002 Olympics moment).

Also you have all these simple AI-controlled players running around. Some games the AI works in your favour and they are where you need them when you need them, and some games they are not.

So what may feel like the game conspiring against you is more likely just random chances not going your way in an equal amount.

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kingraph    138

There is no doubt that games have imbalances (and those may shift during the game as well), and the degree of imbalance can get pretty severe sometimes.  I think the "relatively impossible" or severe imbalance comes about 15% of the time.  Against someone close or even slightly below your skill level,  this is a near impossible game to win.  

What is important to note here, and something I've been meaning to show more video evidence of, is WHAT actually happens when the game is imbalanced.  It's not a player rating hot/cold thing.  It's how the AI acts, and how terrible your controls over that player become.  

Things that happen when the game is stacked against you include (from what I remember and immediately notice):

* Slapshots and one-timers miss the net, or go into the crowd more frequently than not.  I don't care if you're Mario Lemiuex.  It's not going in.

* When trying to get a loose puck, your AI happens to always be moving away from the puck.  So even if you switch to the player, you're immediately fighting against the momentum of your player going the wrong way.  Usually too late and your opponent picks up the puck.

* Inability to switch to the player closest to the puck or defensemen.  

* Defensemen skate away into the boards and simply leave the middle of the ice wide open!

* When skating up the ice or out of your zone, your own players get in front if you, slowing you down until your opponent's AI swarms you

* Come within any opponent and your player loses the puck immediately on a stick tap.

* A solid check mysteriously fails at the worst time (opponent one-timer or shot).

* Players are moving through mud...delayed response to your inputs.

* Pass from a winger to a wide open center goes flying to your defensemen, who is at the red line.  Or, one-timer fails.

Now, the flip side is true when the momentum is in your favor.  Everything clicks and you can score 10 goals.  I do think the game fluctuates this "momentum" (how I refer to it) throughout the game, but there is definitely about 10-15% of the time where the vast majority of the game is for/against you and you can't do jack to stop it.  Even changing lines, goalies, etc.  

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Brutus    45

I do agree there is randomness involved in the game, and the games only take maybe 10 minutes in real life to play.  That's actually fairly short time frame to try to have all the random factors "even out".
ie, Number of total shots per user range around 10, with some coaches taking more "bad" shots and getting closer to 15.  Given half of the shots you take are going to be by a player with a less than optimal rating for shot accuracy, I'd expect the results of these shot attempts to have the statistical ability to have a user feeling "tilted"/"cheated", whatever it is we feel when it's going the wrong way.

The ratings ARE 100% random, and are NOT accurately displayed, so just in this sense, you'd expect game to game to have a variance that the user would experience even with the same talent/experience being displayed, where if your team's best players are cold and his players are hot, it's going to be an uphill battle.

BUT, straight talking about the "tilt" type games, regardless of ratings, I 100% have seen this.  IF you play long enough, it's just undeniable.  Now, it's probably not actually in the code.  Go to a casino, and watch a craps table or a roulette table, and eventually, you will see the "impossible" become reality, and more often than we'd like to admit.  Also, you tend to only remember the illogical, so if something happened 1 out of 10 times, but it was crazy/wild, then it'd feel more like 25% of the time.

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Brutus    45
4 minutes ago, kingraph said:

There is no doubt that games have imbalances (and those may shift during the game as well), and the degree of imbalance can get pretty severe sometimes.  I think the "relatively impossible" or severe imbalance comes about 15% of the time.  Against someone close or even slightly below your skill level,  this is a near impossible game to win.  

...

 but there is definitely about 10-15% of the time where the vast majority of the game is for/against you and you can't do jack to stop it.

I think it's a lot closer to 10% of the time, and it doesn't last the entire game but maybe 1 out of 20 games where it just seems the momentum can't be turned.

And now that I read other comments, it reminds me of something.  When I played in some of Coach's leagues, including '92 & '93 leagues, he loved have momentum ramped up for the home team, and ALL of goofy tilt would hit you way more often.

 

TO ME, it's 75% having/not having the momentum that gets things going the right/wrong way.  I find I RARELY get these type of games vs an opponent who is not as aggressive, say like Zep, who is passive style player, and as a result, doesn't end up with huge momentum advantages (or disadvantages!).

 

More importantly, in a 10 minute window, it is entirely possible to have every random event go the wrong way, and to have it happen where the AI (which often is making random decisions), makes ALL the wrong decisions EVEN WITHOUT MOMENTUM being against you.  To me, this happens maybe once every 20-30 games.  The rest of the wackiness I attest to the actual coding of the game related to momentum and random variable.s

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TomKabs93    7

Good discussion so far guys!!

I agree with all 3 of you so far (not sure about the percentages, i really have no idea)

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kingraph    138

I agree that home ice/away disadvantage has a factor here.  I notice more wacky games in classic than  GDL.  Also, @Depch thought the crowd meter was key.   To his credit, the instruction manual for Genesis says "don't dismiss the crowd meter.  The higher the decibal rating, the better the teams play".  Not sure what that exactly means, but it was interesting to read that.

One theory I Have is that when you inflict an injury on a player, the momentum shifts against you.  So while you may be happy that you knocked out Mario for the period, I believe you will be at a momentum disadvantage, even past the ensuing power play, if any.

One idea to check the validity of this argument is to look at some game data and see which team scores the next goal after an injury.  If I'm right, the team getting injured should score the next goal the majority of the time. I'll see if there is an easy way to run that data later. 

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smozoma    100

We may know more after the documentary comes out :) 

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kingraph    138
1 hour ago, kingraph said:


One idea to check the validity of this argument is to look at some game data and see which team scores the next goal after an injury.  If I'm right, the team getting injured should score the next goal the majority of the time. I'll see if there is an easy way to run that data later. 

I took data from Blitz 01 - 07, since I had the penalty injury data (aka "Headshot" penalty).  I had 1,307 injuries, and 1,144 times there was a goal scored afterwards (163 times the game ended).  Of the 1,144 times, 598 (52%) of the time the opponent scored the next goal, 546 (48%) of the time the same team injuring the player scored.  That's not as skewed as I thought it would be, and given a team likely gets a PP afterwards, this is nothing significant. 

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CoachMac    99

I agree.

What I don't like is calling it the BS Factor.

I would argue it is what makes 94 great (and Tecmo by the way, anyone heard of the Tecmo gods?  Don't anger them.)

It is also what makes life great.  You think the 1980 USA Team wins against the Soviets without a certain "tilt".
that the 86 Flames beat the Oilers.  (Thanks Steve Smith for having messed up AI)
I could list events daily in Real sports like this that happen.
Come spend a season coaching HS Football with me.

I feel like Plabax and maybe TK want this to be Pac-Man or Super Mario where it is a video game.
With straight up parameters and no goofy tilt just follow the formula, be the best at it and you will always win.

This is not life and it sure isn't real sports.
The goofy tilt is what attracts us and drives us and maintains our interest.

94 succeeds to me because it mimics life and ya I love the goofy tilt in Real life.
and I want as much goofy tilt in my 94 as possible.

IMO if want straight up even dynamics play Pac-Man.
If 94 had straight up dynamics and no tilt we wouldn't still be playing it.
If college football just gave the best team the Title every year you wouldn't need to play games just send it to Saban in Tuscaloosa every year.

Tilt and wacky is why we love sports.

Now after saying all that I love you Plabby and TK, don't take it personal and it is a good discussion, and embrace the wackiness.

It's in the Game!
It's in Life!
It is awesome.

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halifax    91

Nice topic bud! I love the mysterious factor that seems to allow you to ride the wave until it's done. You get on a roll and you know you're going to score every time (and conversely you can feel when your opponent starts to roll). I enjoy that part of the game. 

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segathon    51

agree 100% @CoachMac

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Lupz27    3

No doubt about this, but nothing better then somehow pulling one of these games out against the odds (literally).

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Premium    18

The tilt may be appealing to you, but it's not to most. It's in every single EA Sports game in existence (at least after 1993), and I've heard numerous complaints about it. CoachMac is the first person among many I have come across who enjoys it. 

The feature brings results that are SIMILAR to real life, but there is no true real life comparison. In real life, things can be controlled and they are not pre-determined. In EA Sports video games, certain games are scripted/pre-determined and out of the control of the players.

Say you want to dial 911. If you manage to press the right combination of buttons, you will input 911. It's possible your finger slips and you input 912 by accident.... that is bad luck. However, the BS Factor equivalent would be something forcing you to dial 912 even if you are inputting 911 perfectly.

Edited by Premium

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CoachMac    99
8 hours ago, Premium said:

The tilt may be appealing to you, but it's not to most. It's in every single EA Sports game in existence (at least after 1993), and I've heard numerous complaints about it. CoachMac is the first person among many I have come across who enjoys it. 

The feature brings results that are SIMILAR to real life, but there is no true real life comparison. In real life, things can be controlled and they are not pre-determined. In EA Sports video games, certain games are scripted/pre-determined and out of the control of the players.

Say you want to dial 911. If you manage to press the right combination of buttons, you will input 911. It's possible your finger slips and you input 912 by accident.... that is bad luck. However, the BS Factor equivalent would be something forcing you to dial 912 even if you are inputting 911 perfectly.

I knew this would draw you out of your lair.:big_smile:

I am glad that I can control where I was born (incredibly blessed), how tall I am (incredibly blessed), how much money my parents had (incredibly blessed), or which way an oblong shaped ball bounces when in the hands of 17 year old boys, or frozen rubber across ice when slapped with a stick.  Sports are very random and luck and bounces, and player conditions do matter and change, so does Home/Away advantages.  Exactly what part are you missing here.  This is just what EA put in there games (on this we agree). 

We don't have to agree, but I do love when you are around.

When does your next league start?

PS The 912 thing could happen even if you input 911 perfectly, or your battery could die after 91.:amazing:

 

You just don't like it, which I understand.  All I am saying is even if you don't like gravity sometimes an apple will fall and hit you in the head.

So try and enjoy it.

Edited by CoachMac

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Matt55    3

My other favorite all-time game is Tecmo, and I would say that the Tecmo gods (as my childhood friends also still call the absurd X factor) make all the difference in keeping that game fun and dramatic.

If I am voting, I think that the X factor in NHL is great.  Momentum swings must be weathered and give us an opportunity to fight a noble battle. 

Some great ideas in here - I press some buttons, but who programmed the code of my life, right?  I feel extremely blessed.

Great discussion - touching on the metaphysical!

 

 

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