Fall'15 GENS Vegas Odds


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angryjay93 (LA) : +450 --- Team: LA -- F:8 D:5 G:3 --- AJ has a strong team in Los Angeles that put him as the early favorite. AJ knows how to use players to their best advantage and LA is loaded with skill. The achilles heel will be Hrudey. AJ's manual goalie needs to be on point, but I anticipate few opportunities with a suffocating defense.

Plabax (NJ) : +600 --- Team: NJ -- F:6 D:6 G:5 --- Plabax has proven that he can win with just about any group of players. NJ tends to have some crappy games, but if anyone can overcome them, Plabax can and will be a threat to win.

kingraph (PIT) : +650 --- Team: PIT -- F:7 D:6 G:5 --- Pittsburgh brings a lot of skill with weight and kingraph will have to figure out how to use that to the fullest in order to win games. If he can keep his guys on their skates, there should be plenty of opportunities to score. That's a big IF though.

Depch (BOS) : +700 --- Team: BOS -- F:6 D:10 G:6 --- While Depch (admittedly) struggles in draft leagues, he really excels during Classic. While I can't figure out Boston, I can see Depch really playing well with this team. There's a lot of options out there, and I'll be curious to see how he handles this team.

Uncle Seth (QUE) : +750 --- Team: QUE -- F:6 D:5 G:5 --- Seth will bring his energy to Classic this season and he is more than capable of winning it all. Quebec has not had a good history in Classic, but I think Seth can change that this season. Loads of talent has just been mismanaged, and Seth will use one of 900 line combinations to find the right one to win.

EA (VAN) : +800 --- Team: VAN -- F:9 D:4 G:5 --- Vancouver is a perennial strong classic team and with veteran EA at the helm, this will be an extremely difficult matchup for anyone. While Detroit probably has the the top forwards of any team, Vancouver could be considered #2 or #3 (with Buffalo). EA will make the most use of that speed, as he is coming back strong to the '94 world.

Sicarius Fulgur (DET) : +900 --- Team: DET -- F:10 D:8 G:6 --- Dangerous is an understatement when it comes to Detroit. They are loaded with offensive and defensive talent, and Sicarius can take this team to a deep playoff run. Look out!

sebe82 (CGY) : +1000 --- Team: CGY -- F:6 D:8 G:5 --- I can only hope Sebe has re-kindled that '94 spirit with his KO94 experience. When active, Sebe can beat the best. Calgary has a few Classic titles, so the only thing preventing Sebe from winning is….Sebe!

Zalex (DAL) : +1000 --- Team: DAL -- F:7 D:3 G:5 --- Blessed with a great set of forwards, Zalex will be hard to stop on the offense. With so much speed, Zalex will have many chances to skate around and find the sweet one-timer for a goal. Modano's horrendous accuracy may make Zalex crazy, as he has to capitalize more often than not on his limited shooting opportunities.

IceStorm (TOR) : +1050 --- Team: TOR -- F:5 D:6 G:6 --- IceStorm comes into Classic with an underrated team in Toronto. Gilmour will be a beast on both sides of the ice, and there is good enough talent around him for Ice to be dangerous.

canadiensfan66 (EDM) : +1250 --- Team: EDM -- F:4 D:7 G:7 --- HABS will have to make sure Klima stays healthy because it will be all or nothing with Edmonton. Strong defensemen and goalie should help, but HABS will have to get creative to score outside of #85.

zeppelin55 (NYR) : +1400 --- Team: NYR -- F:7 D:8 G:4 --- The NYR have a great set of Forwards and Defensemen, but you can't rely on Richter or Beezer too much. Zeppelin can elevate his game and stand toe to toe with the best, but he's gotta get on the manual goalie here to make a run for the cup.

Brutus (BUF) : +2000 --- Team: BUF -- F:9 D:4 G:9 --- Beware of Mogilny. He can score from anywhere. Unlike Brutus' Blitz team, Mogs has a superb supporting cast to make him deadly. Brutus has to keep the foot on the accelerator here. With a deep league, making the playoffs will be challenging.

smozoma (MTL) : +2500 --- Team: MTL -- F:5 D:5 G:10 --- Smozoma has a defensive style, and nothing better than to have the best goalie in the game to compliment that style! The question is will Smoz be able to get enough out of that mixed offense to make the playoffs and get some early round upsets!

Vocally Caged (PHI) : +2750 --- Team: PHI -- F:5 D:3 G:6 --- Vocally Caged will have his work cut out for him with Philly and I fear the defense alone with drive him insane. Just terrible. He's more than capable of not only making the playoffs, but winning a series against the best, but I don't see it happening with the Flyers.

Evan (CHI) : +3000 --- Team: CHI -- F:6 D:9 G:10 --- The reigning B champ brings his game to "A" along with Jeremy Roenick and company. I think Chicago has the 2nd best defensive pairing (next to Boston) and those guys will have to play tough with Belfour to chalk up some wins. While Roenick can be downright deadly, I think Evan will have to find a way to get Larmer and whoever else involved as opponents will focus in on stopping JR.

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Agree that the pressure is on AJ with LA for the #1. I still think the best player in the league at the moment is Plabax when he is on, I've seen that rare zen-mode in him where you're anticipating a few moments beforehand what your opponent does and you're doing things right on time, very high level of compete and intensity when required (I can notice this as I was able to do the same in my 20's when I played games shitloads). New Jersey will be hard to match up against the lighter teams and even with his zen-mode it might be too much and get him frustrated to lose that edge. New Jersey as a team plays a really solid 5 man game, the D will be hard to break through and Terreri with Plabax will be great. In the finals 53/47 between AJ & Plabber.

However I would play Zalex with the provided odds. Expecting Zalex & Icestrom higher. Vocally Caged played a really strong season with Toronto last season and Ice should only upgrade on that. I like Toronto myself as well.

Myself: I will be a mystery card yet again. I am not that experienced with Boston as with some other teams (Mtl,Van,Njd,Nyi etc), but I will be putting some effort to getting to know them well (This was the case with STL as well, but league level overall was far from what it's this season). I'll be on for a lot of exis with the team! They're a strong team and allows me to field a really light setup with Oates & Bourque to surprise a few (I hope) and have Neely in occasionally should I need weight and sniper power. If I lack the intensity level during regular season I might even drop out of the playoffs with this very strong season, but I'll try to put in the effort to not see this happen. :)

I wish all the best for everyone and good luck with the season.

Edited by Depch
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What about "making the playoffs" odds, since that's my only reasonable goal? :D

Ask and you shall receive!

12 of the 16 teams will make the playoffs (top 4 seeds get bye round 1). So according to my odds above, I have you, Brutus, VC and Evan not making the cut. You'll have to catch Zeppelin, HABS, Ice, Sicarius, etc. Hmmm, that's not going to be easy.

Smozoma to make the playoffs: +125

Little better than 1-1 as I can easily see you make the top 12, but technically I have you as an underdog.

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Smozoma to make the playoffs: +125

Little better than 1-1 as I can easily see you make the top 12, but technically I have you as an underdog.

I'll take those odds on Smoz!... He played a great Ko94 tourney (he even gave himself an unneeded loss in the prelim bracket) and he'll be a tough competitor in Classic this season

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Vocally Caged (PHI) : +2750 --- Team: PHI -- F:5 D:3 G:6 --- Vocally Caged will have his work cut out for him with Philly and I fear the defense alone with drive him insane. Just terrible. He's more than capable of not only making the playoffs, but winning a series against the best, but I don't see it happening with the Flyers.

Toronto's defense took years off my life. At least Galley can pass.

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Nice one. I'm going to attempt the same for SNES today unless someone else speaks up first.

Yes, please!!!

I have a couple quibbles about some of the placement but I'll keep it to myself. No sense giving anyone extra motivation.

I'd have to agree with me being the preseason favorite, LA can be weird to work with but it's one of the most talented teams I've had in my possession since...2011? Been a good while to say the least.

My value bets go to EA and Zalex. EA should be dangerous with all that offense in his hands and Zalex with Dallas seem like a good match. They D up and suit his counter attack play perfectly. If he converts his chances, fuhgetta about it.

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Ask and you shall receive!

12 of the 16 teams will make the playoffs (top 4 seeds get bye round 1). So according to my odds above, I have you, Brutus, VC and Evan not making the cut. You'll have to catch Zeppelin, HABS, Ice, Sicarius, etc. Hmmm, that's not going to be easy.

Smozoma to make the playoffs: +125

Little better than 1-1 as I can easily see you make the top 12, but technically I have you as an underdog.

Thanks :D

Yeah, those 4 are going to be tough to catch, so hopefully I can harness the Ko94 magic (which I believe is actually a play style breakthrough from my last 10 games of classic last season..)

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Yes, please!!!

I have a couple quibbles about some of the placement but I'll keep it to myself. No sense giving anyone extra motivation.

I'd have to agree with me being the preseason favorite, LA can be weird to work with but it's one of the most talented teams I've had in my possession since...2011? Been a good while to say the least.

My value bets go to EA and Zalex. EA should be dangerous with all that offense in his hands and Zalex with Dallas seem like a good match. They D up and suit his counter attack play perfectly. If he converts his chances, fuhgetta about it.

I agree with the first sentence. I think a couple of the middle odds are more prohibitive underdogs than Raph does but I may be wrong about that. I am still regretting not taking LA.

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I agree with the first sentence. I think a couple of the middle odds are more prohibitive underdogs than Raph does but I may be wrong about that. I am still regretting not taking LA.

Care to elaborate?

Let's be open with who we think will do what :secret_smile:

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I agree with the first sentence. I think a couple of the middle odds are more prohibitive underdogs than Raph does but I may be wrong about that. I am still regretting not taking LA.

Considering the house take on these odds is 47.5%, I think a LOT of the people's odds are a bit generous about their chances :D

Odds	%	Cumulative %
450	18.2%	18.2%
600	14.3%	32.5%
650	13.3%	45.8%
700	12.5%	58.3%
750	11.8%	70.1%
800	11.1%	81.2%
900	10.0%	91.2%
1000	9.1%	100.3%
1000	9.1%	109.4%
1050	8.7%	118.1%
1250	7.4%	125.5%
1400	6.7%	132.1%
2000	4.8%	136.9%
2500	3.8%	140.7%
2750	3.5%	144.2%
3000	3.2%	147.5%

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Considering the house take on these odds is 47.5%, I think a LOT of the people's odds are a bit generous about their chances :D

Odds	%	Cumulative %
450	18.2%	18.2%
600	14.3%	32.5%
650	13.3%	45.8%
700	12.5%	58.3%
750	11.8%	70.1%
800	11.1%	81.2%
900	10.0%	91.2%
1000	9.1%	100.3%
1000	9.1%	109.4%
1050	8.7%	118.1%
1250	7.4%	125.5%
1400	6.7%	132.1%
2000	4.8%	136.9%
2500	3.8%	140.7%
2750	3.5%	144.2%
3000	3.2%	147.5%

Are you saying the total should equal 100% or 45%?

Current NHL odds:

Chicago Blackhawks +650		13.3%	13.3%
Tampa Bay Lightning +900	10.0%	23.3%
Anaheim Ducks +900		10.0%	33.3%
Los Angeles Kings +1100		8.3%	41.7%
New York Rangers +1200		7.7%	49.4%
Pittsburgh Penguins +1200	7.7%	57.1%
St. Louis Blues +1400		6.7%	63.7%
Minnesota Wild +1600		5.9%	69.6%
Nashville Predators +1800	5.3%	74.9%
Washington Capitals +1800	5.3%	80.1%
Montreal Canadiens +1800	5.3%	85.4%
New York Islanders +2200	4.3%	89.7%
Boston Bruins +2500		3.8%	93.6%
Columbus Blue Jackets +2500	3.8%	97.4%
Detroit Red Wings +2500		3.8%	101.3%
Winnipeg Jets +2800		3.4%	104.7%
Calgary Flames +2800		3.4%	108.2%
Edmonton Oilers +3300		2.9%	111.1%
Dallas Stars +3300		2.9%	114.1%
San Jose Sharks +3300		2.9%	117.0%
Ottawa Senators +4000		2.4%	119.4%
Vancouver Canucks +6600		1.5%	120.9%
Colorado Avalanche +6600	1.5%	122.4%
Florida Panthers +6600		1.5%	123.9%
Philadelphia Flyers +7500	1.3%	125.2%
New Jersey Devils +10000	1.0%	126.2%
Buffalo Sabres +10000		1.0%	127.2%
Toronto Maple Leafs +10000	1.0%	128.2%
Carolina Hurricanes +15000	0.7%	128.9%
Arizona Coyotes +25000		0.4%    129.3%

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Total should probably be a little in between 100 and what you have. Same for the set of odds I put together. But in my world the house cleans up, plus nobody likes seeing they have basically zero chance of winning!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Two weeks or so into the season, let's see how we are doing:

angryjay93 (LA) : +450 -------- 7 - 2 (.778) - as expected, but would like to see more GA played!
Piston Plabax (NJ) : +600 -------- 14 - 6 (.700) - killing it with NJ!
kingraph (PIT) : +650 -------- 14 - 10 (.583) - Pittsburgh proving to be more difficult than I thought...overvalued here. Would move line to +1000
Depch (BOS) : +700 -------- 19 - 9 (.679) - Depch really got Boston clicking!
Uncle Seth (QUE) : +750 -------- 16 - 5 (.762) - Quebec's past woes not affecting Seth. Playing high level with Quebec. Would move line to +550
EA (VAN) : +800 -------- 3 - 2 (.600) - CAMAN MAN
Sicarius Fulgur (DET) : +900 -------- 11 - 12 (.478) - Still dangerous with Detroit if he gets into playoffs.
Zalex (DAL) : +1000 -------- 3 - 4 (.429) - Small sample size, lots of games to be played. CAMAN MAN
Icestorm NHL94 (TOR) : +1050 -------- 11 - 5 (.688) - Undervalued the wily vet here. Would move line to +700
canadiensfan66 (EDM) : +1250 -------- 10 - 17 (.370) - Dat struggle. HABS has 13 to go to figure this team out!
zeppelin55 (NYR) : +1400 -------- 12 - 20 (.375) - Zepp 0-8 in OT. Not a record he wants!
brutus (BUF) : +2000 -------- 7 - 15 (.318) - Struggling here.
smozoma (MTL) : +2500 -------- 1 - 1 (.500) - CAMAN MAN WTFGA
Vocally Caged (PHI) : +2750 -------- 5 - 10 (.333) - How's that defense?
Evan (CHI) : +3000 -------- 5 - 12 (.294) - As expected rough outing.


Lupz27 (CGY replacement for Sebe) -------- 2 - 10 (.167) Sebe out, line off the board :electric_shock:

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I was on several nights last week... no one around.

I post my availability... no one responds.

I say schedule some time to play... no one does.

Due to my schedule, I don't have the to wait around all night for people to show up whenever.

If you want to play me, either schedule a time or reference my availability that I post every week and update throughout the week.

Link below...

http://forum.nhl94.com/index.php/topic/17189-availability-ea-fleuryhipcheck/

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I'm adding my. I'm not accustomed with the NA odds so it's just pulled out of the hat. What we'd have for AJ would be somewhere maybe 3.20, which means you if you put in 10$ you get back 32$. And for Plabax like 3.50 etc.

Los Angeles (AJ) +425 - Still being the favourite
New Jersey (Plabax) +450 - Cruise speeding a solid record in the regular season, will add another gear playoffs
Boston (Depch) +650 - Juneau on fire and playing with a better team than is accustomed to
Quebec (Seth) +650 - Team is clicking well under Seth control
Toronto (Ice) +675 - Solid defence and has a good counter offence to go along with it, hard to play against
Pittsburgh (Raph) +850 - That weight and lack of speed makes it hard for Raph, totally not what he is accustomed with
Detroit (Sic) +900 - Best team in the game and Sic can play a solid game, cannot underestimate this combination
Dallas (Zalex) +1000 - Expected more of a punch from Dallas, but plenty of time for Zalex to get used to that speed and team
Vancouver (EA) +1000 - I have no experience of playing EA, but he is a vet with a top tier team
NY Rangers (Zeppelin) +1050 - Doing good when he gets Gartner going, but seems to be really inconsistent with the team and struggling with defence
Edmonton (Habs) +1250 - Looks like Klima can't carry the team with Habs as well as expected, but still plenty of time to make it click and surprise in playoffs
Philadelphia (VC) +1500 - Like Raph predicted, the defence is leaking with one of the highest GAA 4.67
Calgary (Lupz) +1700 - The record is mostly due to Sebe at the moment who played NJ & Bos who are rolling, I can see Lupz increase this record and fight for the playoffs
Buffalo (Brutus) +1750 - Struggling with Buffalo, but has time to figure out the chemistry problems for the first playoff round and go for the underdog win
Montreal (Smozoma) +2000 - Not much data to input here, but great team chemistry and a vet playing with it. I think the team pick was overvalued, but we'll see. Most likely fighting for the last playoff spots.
Chicago (Evan) +3000 - He played well against me, but looks like consistency in A will have to come in upcoming seasons, not making the playoffs this season
Edited by Depch
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